© Reuters. A money changer counts U.S. dollar banknotes at a currency exchange office in Ankara, Turkey November 11, 2021. REUTERS/Cagla Gurdogan
(Reuters) – A meeting of global finance ministers, earnings from U.S. companies whose market value exceeds that of some nations’ entire economies, and a pulse-check for Chinese growth are in the market spotlight.
The G20 gather in India to discuss loans to developing countries, among other things, while Tesla (NASDAQ:) kicks off earnings season for the mega-caps. All this takes place against a backdrop of an epic dollar sell-off as the U.S. economy cools and markets bet the Federal Reserve is nearly done raising rates.
Here’s a look at the week ahead in markets from Rae Wee in Singapore, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker and Amanda Cooper in London.
1/LET’S TALK MONEY
How to funnel more sustainable financing to developing economies and get multilateral lenders to increase loans tops the agenda for Group of 20 finance chiefs meeting in the Indian city of Gandhinagar on July 17-18.
Some of the world’s poorest nations have seen their borrowing costs and debt burdens soar as global interest rates were ramped up. Efforts to restructure for those that tipped into default have been painfully slow.
Regulation of cryptocurrencies, as well as talks on a multilateral agreement on taxing conglomerates with cross-border operations will be held at the gathering that will set the tone for a leaders’ summit in New Delhi in September.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the World Bank’s new President Ajay Banga and International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva are among those attending, as are senior treasury officials from Russia and China, according to Indian officials.
2/CHINA’S FORLORN FIVE?
China kickstarts the week with the release of second-quarter gross domestic product data. Last year’s low base-effect, when COVID lockdowns hit largest swathes of the economy, will likely offer a glow to the latest figures, but the devil is in the detail.
Months of disappointing higher-frequency data makes a repeat of the first-quarter’s above-consensus growth improbable, and has some investors questioning whether the government’s 5% full-year target is realistic.
Mounting deflationary pressure and a slump in trade are the latest red flags on the health of China, which as recently as six months ago had investors betting on a robust recovery.
Patience is wearing thin, as markets wait for Beijing to unveil a highly anticipated stimulus package, with hopes this month’s Politburo meeting could help turn sentiment around.
3/MEGA EARNINGS TIME
Second-quarter earnings season kicks into gear next week, with Tesla the first of the megacaps to report results.
The Elon Musk-led electric vehicle maker posts results on Wednesday. Tesla is one of seven huge stocks whose outsized gains in 2023 have boosted the wider U.S. stock market.
There are signs the rally is broadening to other sectors, but if Tesla or any other megacaps disappoint this quarter, the hit to equity indexes could be severe.
Other megacap firms, such as Apple (NASDAQ:) and Amazon (NASDAQ:) report in coming weeks.
A slew of other big companies also post results. Bank earnings continue, with Bank of America (NYSE:) on Tuesday and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) on Wednesday. On the docket also are Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:), Netflix (NASDAQ:) and Philip Morris (NYSE:).
4/BUY, BUY BABY
UK inflation may be moderating, although the economy remains vulnerable, as high living costs collide with high debt burdens.
Analysts expect Wednesday’s June inflation report to show price increases slowed from the 8.7% annual rate in May.
That may not dissuade the Bank of England from cranking rates higher, given the sizzling pace of wage growth.
Rate rises are snaking slowly through the economy, as over 85% of homeowners are on fixed-rate mortgages and many of them are still protected by cheap rates agreed in prior years.
But about a million households will see their payments jump by at least 500 pounds ($651.80) a month for their home loans by 2026, the BoE estimates.
And data on house prices and new car registrations will show how confident consumers are about their finances.
5/GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN
A U.N.-brokered deal that guarantees the safe passage of Black Sea grain from Ukraine ports expires on Monday. Under the year-old agreement, over 32 million tonnes of corn, wheat and other grains have been exported and the price of many of these staples has dropped sharply, helping to cool inflation.
But Russia says it sees no grounds to prolong the pact and says commitments to remove hurdles to Russian food and fertiliser exports have not been fulfilled.
No new ships have been registered to travel to Ukraine since June 26 and the clock is ticking. Ukraine is shipping roughly half the corn and wheat it did before the war. Others such as Brazil, have stepped up supplies. But a global food crisis is far from over. In 2022, a record number experienced acute hunger, according to the U.N., and global stocks of wheat and corn are running at multi-year lows.
($1 = 0.7671 pounds)
