Daily Markets: Stocks Attempt to Rally

Today’s Big Picture

Asia-Pacific equity markets finished the day up across the board except for China’s tech-heavy Shanghai Composite, which fell 0.16%. Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries gained 0.23%, South Korea’s KOSPI 0.37%, Taiwan’s TAIEX 0.43%, India’s SENSEX 0.60%, and Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.33% higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng had a strong day, up 2.06% on a broad rally led by Retail Trade names. European markets are up across the board except for Turkey in midday trading and U.S. futures point to a positive open.

Equity futures are being lifted in part by shares of UBS (UBS) as the firm named former CEO Sergio Ermotti as its new Group CEO, following the recent acquisition of Credit Suisse. Ermotti was behind the successful repositioning of UBS following the 2008 global financial crisis and was credited with achieving “a profound culture change within the bank.” While we have a relatively light economic calendar, investors will continue to pick over the earnings reports that are or will soon be available, prepping for the upcoming March quarter earnings season. And Federal Reserve’s Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr makes another appearance in Washington today, this time before the House Financial Services Committee. Following Barr’s appearance yesterday, market watchers will be looking for clues on the forward path for monetary policy and if Barr shares any incremental thoughts regarding tightening credit expectations on the economy.

Data Download

International Economy

Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator increased for a sixth consecutive month in April to -29.5 vs. March’s -30.6figure and the expected one of -29.2.

Domestic Economy

We have the usual weekly complement of MBA Mortgage Applications data and EIA Crude Oil Inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration. We expect that inventory data to be contrasted with this week’s report from the American Petroleum Institute which showed a draw of 6.1 million barrels of oil for the week ending March 24.

At 10 AM ET, Pending Home Sales data for February will be published and the expectation is a fall of 2.3% MoM vs. the 8.1% increase posted in January.

The Wall Street Journal reports House Speaker Kevin McCarthy tried to prod President Biden into starting talks over spending cuts as a condition for raising the debt ceiling, just as Republicans are struggling to unite around a blueprint for negotiations ahead of dual deadlines later this year.

Markets

Yesterday saw continued banking woes raise the specter of recession fears over equity markets as all major indexes were down by the close. The Russell 2000 closed essentially flat, done 0.06% while the Dow declined 0.16%, the S&P 500 fell 0.16% and the Nasdaq Composite closed 0.45% lower. Sectors were mixed, with Energy (1.55%) providing the biggest boost with defensive and what we used to call “old economy names” including Consumer Staples (0.18%), Utilities (0.27%), Materials (0.48%), and Industrials (0.51%) ending the day ahead. McCormick & Company (MKC) accounted for roughly half of Consumer Staples results as traders bid shares up 9.61% after the company posted Q1 results that exceeded analyst estimates.

Here’s how the major market indicators stack up year-to-date:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.27%
S&P 500: 3.43%
Nasdaq Composite: 11.94%
Russell 2000: -0.49%
Bitcoin (BTC-USD): 64.43%
Ether (ETH-USD): 48.04%

Stocks to Watch

Before U.S. equity markets begin trading today, Cintas (CTAS), Conn’s (CONN), Kingsoft Cloud (KC), Paychex (PAYX), and Sharecare (SHCR) are expected to report their quarterly results.

Memory company Micron (MU) reported a greater-than-expected bottom line loss of $1.91 per share for its February quarter, well below the expected -0.88. Revenue for the quarter fell 52.6% YoY to $3.69 billion, missing the $3.71 billion consensus. For the current quarter that ends in May, the company sees EPS of $(1.65)-$(1.51) vs. the $(0.92) with its top line in the range of $3.5-$3.9 billion, bookending the $3.75 billion consensus. During its earnings call, Micron shared it now expects PC unit volume to fall mid-single digits this year, smartphone unit volume to be down slightly in 2023, and that data center demand bottomed during the quarter.

January quarter EPS from lululemon (LULU) topped consensus expectations, led by the 30.2% YoY revenue gain to $2.77 billion, nicely ahead of the $2.70 billion consensus. Total comparable sales increased +27% (YoY) with comparable store sales up 15% and direct-to-consumer sales up 37%. Offsetting the volume gains, gross margins decreased 300 basis points to 55.1%, missing the 57.1% consensus estimate, as inventories ballooned 50% YoY. For the current April quarter, lulu sees EPS of $1.93-2.00 on $1.89-$1.93 billion in revenue vs. the consensus forecast of $1.64 in EPS on $1.85 billion in revenue.

Shares of Lyft (LYFT) dropped yesterday after new CEO David Risher shared the company is not for sale. Risher also said Lyft will be “price competitive” and is not ruling out moving into other areas outside of ridesharing, but the company’s focus would remain on its core business.

IPOs

Near-term the calendar for such activity looks rather thin. Readers looking to dig more into the upcoming IPO calendar should visit Nasdaq’s Latest & Upcoming IPOs page.

After Today’s Market Close

EVO Payments (EVOP), HB Fuller (FUL), RH (RH), Semtech (SMTC), Sportsman’s Warehouse (SPWH), and Sprinklr (CXM) are slated to report their quarterly results after equities stop trading. Those looking for more on which companies are reporting when should head on over to Nasdaq’s Earnings Calendar.

On the Horizon

Thursday, March 30