The victory of Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democrats (CDU) in Sunday’s parliamentary election gives Germany a new opportunity to fix the crumbling foundations of its postwar success. Once a rock of stability at the centre of Europe, it now looks acutely vulnerable on multiple fronts. It can no longer rely on open markets abroad to sustain its export-led economy; it can no longer rely on a US security umbrella to keep it and its European partners safe from Russian aggression; and more and more Germans are losing faith in mainstream parties’ ability to deliver. As support for the political centre ground shrinks, it is growing for radical movements, above all the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), whose commitment to liberal democracy is questionable.
After years of government dysfunction under the Social Democrats (SPD), liberal Free Democrats and Greens, the country has swung to the right. The AfD won a historic second place with 21 per cent of the vote, double its 2021 score. Worryingly, its appeal is stronger among the young than the elderly. As the biggest opposition party, it stands to reap the benefits if a Merz-led government falters.
The CDU leader has rightly ruled out working with the AfD. Most Germans, fully aware of the burden of their history, are still resolutely against sharing power with a party that has extremist elements, discriminatory policies and a fondness for Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Merz has no option but to form a coalition with the SPD. The two parties are far apart on tax, welfare and immigration. But compromises on all these are possible, even irregular migration, where Merz has public support for more restrictions. Speed is vital. The two parties would do well to find agreement on broad strategic objectives rather than spend months on a detailed plan.
Merz’s first moves are encouraging. On Sunday he said his “absolute priority” would be to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we actually achieve independence from the USA”. The chancellor-designate’s choice of words might displease some European partners still clinging to a tattered US security blanket. But it is reassuring to hear such lucidity about shifting geopolitical realities from a future German leader and all the more credible coming from a hitherto convinced Atlanticist like Merz. Independence from an unreliable or even antagonistic US, however unimaginable only a few months ago, is a mission that could unite a black-red coalition, assuming Berlin can find the resources to match.
While the election result gives Merz the possibility of forming a more stable two-party coalition, it removes the option of reforming the constitutional debt “brake” which has drastically curtailed necessary public investment. A strengthened far left and far right will have a blocking minority in the next Bundestag to thwart changes to the constitution. To pre-empt that, Merz on Monday floated the idea of reconvening the current parliament where mainstream parties have the required two-thirds majority to loosen the debt constraint, despite his ambiguity on the issue during the campaign. It is the kind of audacious approach Germany will need if it is to escape its malaise.
Berlin will have to unlock tens of billions of euros a year to sustainably increase defence spending, rearm, modernise its infrastructure, lower energy costs and invest in innovation. Unless Germany can raise its productivity and rebalance its growth model towards domestic consumption, Europe’s economic prospects and living standards will continue to fade. And without German heft, Europe has little chance of replacing US military assets quickly enough to avoid being dangerously exposed to a revanchist Russia. The continent really needs Merz to succeed.
