Despite Dalal Street carnage, THESE 6 Nifty 50 financial stocks jumped up to 14% in last 1 month. Should you buy?

The Indian stock market selloff, which began in October last year, shows no signs of easing. The benchmark index has dropped 13 per cent overall since then and is now 14 per cent below its all-time high of 26,277.35, reached on September 27.

On a monthly scale, the Nifty 50 plunged 6 per cent in October, followed by a 0.31 per cent decline in November. In December, it declined further by 2 per cent.

The intensity subsided in January when the index lost just 0.60 per cent. However, in February so far, the index has seen a sharp selloff and is down by 4 per cent. Nifty 50 now looks set to extend the losing streak to the fifth consecutive month.

Over the past month (since January 25), the Nifty 50 has declined 2.4 per cent, with 32 stocks in the red. However, six financial stocks- Bajaj Finance (up 14 per cent), Shriram Finance (up 9 per cent), IndusInd Bank (up 9 per cent), Bajaj Finserv (up 8.5 per cent), Axis Bank (up 6.4 per cent) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 4 per cent)- have defied the market downtrend, gaining 4-14 per cent during the same period.

Bucking the trend

Despite market volatility, shares of these large financial companies have risen, driven by attractive valuations and relatively better December quarter (Q3FY25) results. With their recent gains, traders and investors wonder whether to buy at current levels. To shed light on this, Mint spoke to technical analysts—here’s what they had to say.

Bajaj Finance

With a gain of 14 per cent, Bajaj Finance share price is the top gainer of the Nifty 50 index over the last one month. Experts suggest investors consider booking some profit in the stock at this juncture.

Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, pointed out that over the past three months, Bajaj Finance has surged 34 per cent, rallying from ₹6,451 to ₹8,662. However, at the current levels, the stock is stalling near the R1 monthly resistance pivot, as seen in the chart.

Additionally, a bearish divergence has emerged, signalling potential downside pressure in the coming sessions.

“We advise a short position in the ₹8,400- ₹8,500 range, with a target of ₹7,600 and a stop-loss at ₹8,800 on a daily closing basis. If selling pressure intensifies, a reversal toward lower pivot support levels is likely, making this a favourable risk-reward opportunity for downside movement,” said Patel.

Shriram Finance

Shriram Finance’s share price has gained 9 per cent in the last month.

According to Hardik Matalia, a derivative analyst at Choice Broking, Shriram Finance recently broke out of a falling parallel channel. Despite this breakout, the stock is still trading near the breakout level, indicating a crucial phase where price action needs to sustain above key resistance zones to confirm a trend reversal.

Matalia said if the stock manages to hold above the ₹600- ₹620 range, it could signal a strong confirmation of trend reversal, paving the way for further upside momentum and a continued upward trajectory.

The RSI is currently at 55.98, reflecting a sideways trend. This suggests the possibility of a time- or price-wise correction before any significant move. The stock trades above all key moving averages, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term EMAs, indicating underlying strength.

“For short-term traders, a sustained move above the ₹600- ₹620 range would be an ideal entry point, as it could confirm buying interest and push prices higher. Until then, it is advisable to wait for a decisive breakout rather than entering prematurely,” said Matalia.

“Long-term investors, however, can start accumulating at current levels and continue adding on dips, considering the breakout potential and strong moving average positioning. A successful hold above ₹600- ₹620 could turn the trend bullish, while failure to sustain may lead to further consolidation or a retest of lower levels,” said Matalia.

IndusInd Bank

IndusInd Bank share price has gained 9 per cent in the last one month.

Patel of Anand Rathi pointed out that the stock has been consolidating around the R1 pivot in the recent few sessions, indicating indecision. A breakout has not been confirmed yet, making it a wait-and-watch situation.

“If the stock closes above ₹1,055, it could gain momentum toward ₹1,150. Conversely, a close below ₹1,014 may trigger weakness, leading to a potential decline toward ₹965,” said Patel.

“Traders should monitor price action closely for confirmation before taking positions. The stock’s movement around these key levels will determine the next trend, making patience and disciplined trading essential in the current market scenario,” Patel said.

Bajaj Finserv

Bajaj Finserv’s share price has jumped 8.5 per cent in the last month.

According to Matalia of Choice Broking, Bajaj Finserv has been forming a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a sustained bullish reversal. It has recovered approximately 20% from its recent trend low, reflecting significant strength in price action.

Furthermore, it has breached a critical resistance level at ₹1,850 and is now trading above all major moving averages, including the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the daily chart. This alignment of technical indicators reinforces a bullish outlook.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 62.18, indicating increasing buying momentum and a strengthening bullish sentiment.

“The ₹1,900 range is expected to act as a strong resistance zone. If the stock stabilises above this level, a continued uptrend toward ₹2,000 is possible. However, a breakdown below ₹1,825 could lead to further downside, exposing the stock to additional selling pressure,” said Matalia.

“Given the prevailing market conditions, traders and investors should exercise caution and wait for confirmation of price action before considering fresh positions,” Matalia said.

Axis Bank

Axis Bank’s share price has risen 6.4 per cent in the last one month.

Vishnu Kant Upadhyay, AVP – Research & Advisory at Master Capital Services, observed that the stock is showing signs of stabilization above the 200-week EMA, a historically significant demand zone. The formation of a bullish candlestick near this level underscores renewed buying interest.

The RSI, currently at 50.20, is attempting to recover from oversold conditions, indicating a potential shift in momentum. Furthermore, the MACD histogram is displaying early signs of convergence, suggesting a possible trend reversal. On the daily chart, prices appear to be forming a higher high and higher low structure, signalling a gradual shift in near-term bias towards the upside.

“We expect any dip toward the ₹1,000-980 zone to attract fresh buying, with an upside potential towards ₹1,105, followed by ₹1,120,” said Upadhyay.

Kotak Mahindra Bank

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s share price has gained 4 per cent in the last month.

Upadhyay highlighted that Kotak Bank is trading near a key horizontal resistance zone around ₹1,995-2,000, where some profit booking could emerge.

However, the overall trend remains bullish, as the stock trades above both the 21-day EMA and the 200-day EMA, reinforcing positive sentiment. The RSI at 59.18 suggests room for further upside, while the MACD is in positive territory, supporting the bullish outlook.

“A minor pullback towards ₹1,920–1,930 can offer a buying opportunity for traders looking to enter at better risk-reward levels. A breakout above ₹1,995-2,000 could lead to a rally towards ₹2,100 in the near term, while ₹1,865 remains a strong support level,” said Upadhyay.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.