Nvidia Q4 Results Today: Will Silicon Valley’s AI leader lift Wall Street’s ‘Mag Seven’ from correction territory?

Nvidia Q4 Results Today: Nvidia Corp.’s earnings are set to dictate whether artificial intelligence can regain its status as the key driver behind Wall Street gains — or trigger more weakness after the Magnificent Seven group of technology stocks fell into correction territory.

Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings due after Wednesday’s close may be its most critical yet, coming after the emergence of China-based startup DeepSeek scrambled the outlook for AI infrastructure needs. While Nvidia shares had been trending higher this month, they remain below their pre-DeepSeek levels.

Nvidia’s results will land at a time when investors are increasingly on edge over lofty valuations and uncertainty about massive spending on artificial intelligence. Over the past two years, Nvidia has led the AI trade and fellow US megacaps have benefited from the trend.

Nvidia’s numbers are the most closely watched barometer of the AI boom. Investors also will be looking for signs that the company is transitioning smoothly to its new Blackwell design from the older Hopper lineup. The shift may cause customers to slow purchases until there’s better availability of the new products, according to some analysts.

Big tech will face perhaps its biggest test of the earnings season when Nvidia reports results after the bell. The chipmaker, whose eye-popping, roughly 170% rally in 2024 was a significant driver of S&P 500 gains, has slumped this year.

Nvidia’s much-awaited results – seen as a barometer of AI chip demand – on Wednesday could prove to be a turning point for the artificial intelligence stocks that have fueled the market’s rally in the last two years.

Investors have raked in big gains from the AI boom led by the so-called “Magnificent Seven”, a group of tech giants that includes Nvidia, Microsoft and automaker Tesla, since the debut of ChatGPT in November 2022 — hailed as AI’s “iPhone moment”.

But lately, the group has taken a few hits.

The launch of low-cost AI models from China’s DeepSeek last month wiped off more than half a trillion dollars from Nvidia’s market value in a day. Adding to the tumult, an analyst report suggested Microsoft was scrapping some data center leases.

The Magnificent Seven stocks have retreated from their late-2024 peaks and the group is in correction territory, with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF down more than 11% since its December 17 closing high.

But Nvidia, which has routinely exceeded analyst estimates over the last two years, has been able to assuage investor worries about the spending spree.

The magnitude of those revenue beats, however, has been narrowing as the company faces tough comparisons from robust growth a year ago. That has weighed on the market reaction after its results over the past two quarters.

The stock was up 3.3% on Wednesday, lifting the chip sector as well as the broader U.S. stock market after a selloff due to a dour consumer confidence report.

The Mag Seven stocks added roughly $11 trillion in market value between the debut of ChatGPT in November 2022 and a peak in mid-December 2024.

Nvidia, the world’s second most valuable company, has been the top beneficiary of Wall Street’s picks-and-shovels AI trade, adding about $2.7 trillion in market value in that time.

The company’s near-1,800% surge in the last five years makes it the leader of the Mag Seven. Those stocks have on average more than tripled in that time, while the benchmark S&P 500 has gained about 65%.

So far in 2025, those stocks have stumbled. The Mag Seven is down about 4.5%, while the rest of the S&P 500 has gained about 4.4% – so the entire index has eked out a mere 1% rise.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the analyst consensus for Nvidia’s net 2026 earnings has stayed steady over the past quarter, while the view for revenue is up about 2%, a sign Wall Street firms aren’t trimming their estimates on account of DeepSeek or anything else. In Wednesday’s release, analysts expect Nvidia to report more than $38 billion in quarterly revenue, a 73% increase from the same period a year earlier.