Donald Trump digs in against Volodymyr Zelenskyy with suspension of military aid to Ukraine

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Good morning and welcome to White House Watch. We have a jam-packed news agenda today — and that’s before Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress tonight. Let’s get into:

Trump suspending aid to Ukraine
TSMC’s overture to the US president
Trump’s approval rating

President Donald Trump has ordered that the US suspend military aid to Ukraine as he seeks to pressure President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to make concessions in peace talks with Russia.

Ukraine fighting without US weapons, equipment or intelligence was until recently an unthinkable prospect. As it looks set to become reality, a senior Ukrainian intelligence official said that his country would probably run out of US military supplies in “two or three months”.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio seemed to suggest Trump’s announcement was tied to a wider diplomatic effort, saying: “We want to get the Russians to a negotiating table. We want to explore whether peace is possible.” But he did not mention the suspension directly.

Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War in Washington last night warned that the decision to cut off US aid would “directly undermine President Trump’s stated goal of achieving a sustainable peace in Ukraine”.

So what is it that the US is looking for from Ukraine following the Oval Office clash between Trump and Zelenskyy on Friday? Yesterday, Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, laid out some of Washington’s conditions.

“What we need to hear from President Zelenskyy is that he has regret for what happened, he’s ready to sign this minerals deal and that he’s ready to engage in peace talks,” Waltz said. “I don’t think that’s too much to ask. I think that’s what’s best for the American people, for the Ukrainian people, for Russia and for the world to restore stability,” he added.

But that seems highly unlikely. Zelenskyy on Sunday said he felt no need to make amends for how his White House visit transpired, and rejected calls for an immediate Ukraine-Russia ceasefire without security guarantees.

Ukraine desperately wants to avoid a ceasefire “trap” that would fail to hold Russia accountable if it breaks a peace deal — as it did with the “Minsk agreements” in 2014 and 2015. That could be one reason why the UK has distanced itself from a plan that French President Emmanuel Macron said would include a one-month truce.

For now, it looks like Russia will be content to break out the popcorn and watch the drama unfold.

The latest headlines

What we’re hearing

The first month of Donald Trump’s presidency has been a frenzy of activity: thousands of federal employees have been fired, Ukraine fears it will be abandoned in its war with Russia, Gazans face potential resettlement and North America is on the brink of a trade war.

But for many of the president’s supporters in swing states such as Georgia, all of that seems a world away. And they’re happy for Trump to keep pressing ahead. “So far, so good,” Corinne Wooten, a 30-year-old in Atlanta, told the FT’s Myles McCormick.

The president’s assault on the federal government and revamp of the US approach to Ukraine has not had a detrimental impact on his support. While the president’s approval rating has slipped since he took office, it remains narrowly positive, according to 538’s latest poll of polls, and higher than at practically any point in his first term.

Despite Democrats’ mobilising around their brewing anger, the party still faces a big challenge in bringing moderate voters onside. According to Jennifer Ambler, a Democratic activist in Georgia’s Forsyth County:

“We are welcoming anyone who’s like, I made a huge mistake . . . “[But] it’s pretty quiet . . . They’re still willing to give [Trump] some time.”

Indeed, some voters appear to be giving the president leeway on issues such as inflation. Chris Tark, a 66-year-old retiree, said the process of cutting prices “hasn’t started yet” but blamed external factors such as bird flu and the lag period before oil output rises.

“I think it’s going to take a good year before we’ll see results from all that,” he said. “The ones that voted for him understand how it works. Everybody else will be ready to jump on him when next week the prices aren’t down.”