Why the EU’s plan for Ukraine is to turn it into a porcupine

Good morning. Russian President Vladimir Putin has struck a hard line over any deal to halt the fighting in Ukraine, even as he said he “supports the idea” behind a US-backed 30-day ceasefire — and also said he wanted talks with Washington before agreeing to any terms.

Today, we report on the European Commission’s new defence plan for Ukraine, and explain Hungary’s blackmail over Russian oligarch sanctions.

Have a good weekend.

Porcupine

As part of its strategy of turning Ukraine into an indigestible steel porcupine, the European Commission proposed to “urgently increase its military assistance to Ukraine” to “deter any possible further attacks”.

Context: US President Donald Trump temporarily suspended military aid to Kyiv and US intelligence sharing, as part of a pressure campaign to get Ukraine to accept peace terms.

In response, Europe has pledged to support Ukraine to ensure that any peace settlement is in Kyiv’s interests.

To do so, Brussels is suggesting immediately and massively expanding deliveries of artillery ammunition to the order of 1.5mn rounds, providing air defence missiles and drones, as well as training Ukrainian troops.

“There is a critical, short-term requirement to fully fund ammunition deliveries to Ukraine throughout 2025,” the commission wrote in a draft of a so-called defence white paper due to be published ahead of a summit of EU leaders next Thursday and seen by the Financial Times.

EU countries should also consider directly buying weapons that have been manufactured in Ukraine, thus strengthening the local sector, and also involving Kyiv in proposed joint procurement of weapons.

Integrating EU and Ukraine’s defence production would “enable the Ukrainian defence industry to contribute to Ukraine’s economic recovery and provide cost-efficient defence products to the global market”, the commission wrote.

However, while arming Ukraine to its teeth is a short-term necessity, longer-term security guarantees, with boots on the ground or mutual defence clauses, is something EU countries are only prepared to provide if the US is involved.

Chart du jour: Golden rings

As it chooses a new president, the Olympics is facing an exodus of big sponsors and a fast-changing media landscape. Does the business model of the world’s biggest sporting event still work?

Chicken

Hungary set out to remove eight Russians from the EU’s list of 2,400 sanctioned people this week and will probably walk away with three exempted — but keeping the other 2,397 will feel like a win for the bloc’s 26 other member states.

Context: Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU has sanctioned some 2,400 Russian and Belarusian officials, politicians and businessmen adjudged to have supported or facilitated the war. These sanctions must be renewed every six months, in March and September, with the support of all member states.

Yesterday EU ambassadors argued all day long with Hungary’s envoy to Brussels, as he demanded that oil-to-banking oligarch Mikhail Fridman and seven other people handpicked by Budapest were cut from the list, or else he would refuse to endorse the rollover.

Faced with the potential of all sanctioned individuals — including Russian President Vladimir Putin, military leaders fighting in Ukraine and billionaires with luxury yachts in European harbours — having their asset freezes and travel bans lifted, the other 26 agreed to move ahead by accepting that three people be struck from the list, according to officials.

That means that unless there was a surprise objection overnight, a bureaucratic silent procedure will ensure the sanctions remain in place for another six months.

But the latest attempt by Hungary, the EU’s most pro-Russian member, to blackmail the rest to win prizes for the Kremlin has stretched the patience of the other capitals to breaking point.

Many officials are once again openly discussing the potential of using the Article 7 procedure — the nuclear option of stripping a member state of its voting powers — against Hungary, but are completely aware of the political challenges and implications of such a move.

Still, if Hungary pulls the same trick in July, when the economic slate of sanctions against Russia including those keeping the Kremlin’s immobilised assets in Europe frozen are up for renewal, the drumbeat for decisive action against Budapest could reach a crescendo.

What to watch today

1. Polish President Andrzej Duda visits Budapest to meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Now read these

• Spanish defence: Madrid calls for defence spending criteria to expand as premier says “our threat is not Russia bringing its troops across the Pyrenees”.

• Kursk gambit: From daring invasion to rapid retreat, Ukraine’s seven-month invasion of Russia’s south-west has collapsed as peace talks swirl.

• The business of Formula 1: An FT Special Report into the sport’s moneymaking machine, from nurturing new talent to expanding its geographical footprint.