© Reuters Morgan Stanley bullish on Netflix (NFLX) the business, waits for better risk/reward
Morgan Stanley remains neutral on Netflix (NASDAQ:) shares but raised its price target for the stock to $450 from $350 in a note to clients Monday.
The analysts, who have an Equal-Weight rating on the stock, told investors that while the firm is “bullish on Netflix the business, they see a balanced risk/reward and prefer to wait for a better entry point.”
“We are bullish on Netflix the business as continued execution, competitor withdrawal, and disciplined expense trends increase our outlook,” they wrote. “At YE24, we forecast a +20% 3-year fwd EPS CAGR, supporting such a premium multiple in our view.”
“On a 12-month view, however, there may be more risk of multiple compression from here than multiple expansion and we wait for a better entry point: NFLX EV is up nearly 50% or $65bn YTD, crossing $200bn. Consensus ’24 adjusted EPS estimates have moved up roughly 10% YTD, implying the ’24E P/E multiple is up 35-40% YTD. Since announcing paid sharing in the US on May 23rd, NFLX has added roughly $40bn in EV,” they added.
The analysts also noted that Netflix’s paid sharing price points suggest more net adds than extra members compared to the firm’s prior forecast, they believe “Netflix is poised to demonstrate how good a business streaming can be at scale.”
