Feb 20 (Reuters) – Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop is projected to fall 8% from the previous season to 59.75 million 60-kg bags due to the impact of last year’s drought and larger-than-expected pruning of coffee trees, said broker Pine Agronegocios on Thursday.
In a report based on a recent crop tour through the main producing areas in Brazil, Pine projected a 16% fall in the production of arabica coffee – a higher quality variety preferred by high-end coffee chains – to 36.46 million bags.
It estimated production of robusta coffee, a type widely used to make instant coffee, to grow 8% in 2025/26 to 23.29 million bags.
Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter, and the second largest consumer after the United States. Its production is key to balance global supplies, particularly amid record coffee prices due to production shortfalls in several countries.
Pine’s estimates are below an average view of 64.6 million bags indicated in a Reuters poll.
“Robusta production (in Brazil) will partly offset a smaller arabica crop, and could drive local roasters to change their blends,” said the report, indicating the local industry could use more robusta and less arabica.
The broker noted unusually high pruning of arabica coffee trees, which further decreases the 2025/26 crop potential.
Farmers tend to prune trees when they are in bad condition or when fruit loads disappoint. That leads to zero production in 2025/26, but can reinvigorate the trees to produce more in the following season (2026/27).
The broker projected a 22% fall on Brazilian coffee exports in 2025/26 to only 39.24 million bags due to limited supplies.
It expects high prices to cut local consumption by 4.5% to 20.9 million bags.
Pine projected 2025/26 end-stocks at 1.6 million bags, which it said would be the smallest on record.
(Reporting by Marcelo Teixeira. Editing by Jane Merriman)
