Brent logs biggest weekly loss in 4 months, US WTI crashes 4%: Goldman Sachs eyes downside risk ahead of OPEC+ supply

Oil prices gained on Friday but retreated from session highs after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease-fire with Ukraine. Brent crude futures settled at $70.36 a barrel, up 90 cents, or 1.3%. West Texas Intermediate futures finished at $67.04, up 68 cents, or 1.02%.

Goldman Sachs sees downside risks to its average Brent forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in the wake of OPEC+’s plans to increase oil output in April, including softer demand based on recent U.S. activity data and tariff escalation.

The output increase is the first since 2022 from OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia and other allies. It is set to begin one quarter earlier than Goldman Sachs’ prior assumption of four months of increases starting in July, the bank said.

Trump said in a post on Truth Social that he was “strongly considering” sanctions on Russian banks and tariffs on Russian products because its armed forces continue attacks in Ukraine.

In early trade, Brent jumped as high as $71.40, while WTI hit $68.22 after Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that the OPEC producer group will go ahead with its April increase but may then consider other steps, including reducing production.

Oil’s moves on OPEC and possible Russia sanctions swept aside other news, including delays in Israel and Hamas seeking a permanent cease-fire in Gaza.

For the week, Brent was down 3.8%, its biggest weekly decline since the week of November 11. WTI finished down 3.9%, its biggest weekly drop since the week of January 21.

Late in Friday’s session, prices stabilized following comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC.

Powell said the Federal Reserve Board was watching how new policies from the Trump administration, especially on trade, were affecting the economy. Kilduff said rapid changes in implementing policy, plus developments that could increase geopolitical risk, were being felt by traders.

“We’re coming to terms with a lot of issues,” Kilduff said. “There is a realization you shouldn’t get too aggressive on either side of the issue.” Brent prices fell to their lowest since December 2021 on Wednesday after U.S. crude inventories rose and OPEC announced its decision to increase output quotas.

OPEC had said it intended to proceed with a planned April output increase, adding 138,000 barrels per day to the market. In other supply news, comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that the U.S. aims to reduce Iranian crude exports to a trickle.

Trump’s administration is considering a plan to inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter, continuing efforts to drive down Iranian oil exports to zero. Global markets have been whipsawed by fluctuating trade policy in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer.

On Thursday Trump suspended the 25% tariffs he had imposed on most goods from Canada and Mexico until April 2, though steel and aluminum tariffs would still take effect on March 12.

In the U.S., job growth picked up in February and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%, but growing uncertainty over trade policy and deep federal government spending cuts could erode the labor market’s resilience in the months ahead.