The Centre has extended duty free imports of urad and tur till next March 2026, and yellow peas till this May — while imposing a 10 per cent levy on lentils import. The key issue here is managing the undeniable demand-supply gap through imports in a way such that the grower is not discouraged from cultivating these crops. If untimely imports depress prices below minimum support levels, as is the case at present, it is likely to reduce acreage in kharif pulses to begin with (urad and tur), accentuating the demand-supply gap. Further imports would have the same effect, undermining self-sufficiency efforts.
Yet, an absolute squeeze on imports by raising duties could deprive consumers of a crucial source of protein. Therefore, the quantity and timing of imports should be calibrated to ensure that interests of producers and consumers are met. Current data suggest that pulses output in FY25 will marginally exceed the FY24 level of 24.3 million tonnes. While the rabi estimates released recently point to an output of 15.8 million tonnes (led by chana at 11.5 million tonnes and lentils at 1.8 million tonnes), kharif pulses has been pegged at 7.1 million tonnes. Pulses imports in FY25 have been estimated at over 6.5 million tonnes (led by yellow peas at over three million tonnes, which is used as a substitute for chana and other pulses). Declining output since FY22 (when an all-time high output of 27.3 million tonnes was achieved) has also meant that inventories are declining, raising imports. Meanwhile, a rising population as well as a dietary shift away from cereals have led to higher demand for pulses, of which, sadly, there are few official estimates.
Studies such as those by ICAR about a decade ago and one by NABARD-ICRIER suggest a current demand of at least 28 million tonnes (based also on an ICMR-determined nutritional norm of 52 grams per capita per day). Therefore, at current levels of output and inventory, imports of over five million tonnes does not come as a surprise. But to manage imports smoothly in future, getting a fix on the demand scenario is a must, and the Centre must conduct a survey to this end. Reliable estimates on output too would go a long way in managing the needs of all parties concerned. If the supply-demand gap as well as inventory levels are known (the latter should be placed in the public domain by procuring agencies, as in the case of rice and wheat), market forces would operate optimally to the benefit of all stakeholders.
Alongside such data transparency, a knee-jerk approach to slapping or lifting duties on imports should be avoided. Predictable policy would aid overseas growers and curb speculation. It may be worth considering a liberalised approach to imports, with the government conducting ‘market intervention operations’ to stabilise prices. As for improving yields and output, pulses must be promoted as a main crop in irrigated areas, while providing cheap phosphatic fertilizers.
