Can the EU sanctions regime hold up without the US?

Good morning. News to start: We got the details of a Franco-British peacekeeping plan for Ukraine, which revolves around massive air power and troop deployments at key sites such as nuclear plants and ports.

Today, I explore whether the EU’s newest sanctions package is the first move in a divergence between Brussels and Washington on economic restrictions against Russia. And our Berlin correspondent reports on the last-gasp surge for Germany’s left-wing party ahead of Sunday’s election.

Go your own way

For three years, the EU and US have moved in lockstep with their sanctions against Russia. That could be changing.

Context: The G7 group of western powers has co-ordinated its sanctions against Russia since Moscow’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, targeting banks, oil and metal industries, and cutting off much of Russia’s imports.

US President Donald Trump’s negotiations with Russia to bring a rapid end to the war against Ukraine could change that. His secretary of state Marco Rubio agreed with Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday to “lay the groundwork for future co-operation on . . . economic and investment opportunities”.

Rubio later said the EU would have to “be at the [negotiation] table at some point” only because of its sanctions. The implication was clear: lifting them could be part of the deal.

The EU responded in a matter of hours: agreeing its 16th sanctions package against Moscow yesterday morning. Officials said that was a concerted move to underline that the bloc would stick to its guns in supporting Ukraine and weakening Russia, regardless of any change of heart in Washington.

“We must continue to forge our path on Ukraine, despite what any other ally chooses to do,” said one EU diplomat.

But will EU sanctions still work if the US starts easing theirs? EU officials have long admitted that the threat of being cut off from the US dollar was the key weapon in the G7’s arsenal when it came to enforcement.

EU diplomats have been receiving signals that the US intends to keep its sanctions in place for now, and even reinforce them. “Our sources in Washington are hawkish on sanctions,” said a second EU diplomat.

But that seems to openly conflict with the US administration’s declared aim to improve economic co-operation with Russia, and European officials admit signals coming out of Washington are generally not consistent.

If the US were to lift its measures — or even signal it was no longer bothered with their circumvention — Russia would likely be able to use the gaping hole left in the global financial wall previously built around them to go back to business as usual in many areas, officials fear.

Chart du jour: Melting

The melting of the world’s glaciers is “accelerating alarmingly”, with Europe’s Alps and Pyrenees worst affected.

To the Left

Until a few weeks ago, Germany’s left-wing party Die Linke was fighting for its political survival. But a combination of edgy candidates, party unity and a backlash against a hardline national debate on migration has powered a last-minute surge in the polls, writes Laura Pitel.

Context: on Sunday, Germany votes in a federal election that is pivotal for both the EU’s biggest economy and the entire bloc. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is leading in the polls, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) running second, heralding what would be an unprecedented result.

Die Linke’s projected vote share has risen from around 3 per cent at the start of November to about 7 per cent today. To the surprise of many analysts, it looks set to eclipse the anti-migration, pro-Russian breakaway party BSW, founded by its former figurehead Sahra Wagenknecht.

That has consequences for the whole Bundestag. If Die Linke and AfD together secure more than a third of the seats, they could for instance block changes to the nation’s “debt brake”, which could be used to fund a higher defence budget. Die Linke has called for a “drastic” reduction in military spending and halting arms deliveries to Ukraine.

Thorsten Holzhauser, a historian and expert on Germany’s left, said that the party’s rise was partly due to its focus on its core issues such as the cost of living and social justice.

But it had also been boosted, he said, by the fraught debate following CDU leader Friedrich Merz’s contentious decision last month to pass a motion on migration with support from the AfD.

That prompted a fiery speech in the Bundestag from Heidi Reichinnek, Die Linke’s candidate for chancellor, who pairs a blunt fringe with red lipstick and a tattooed left arm.

Subsequently, the party had been able to “resolutely style itself as an anti-fascist party”, Holzhauser said. “That has given Die Linke a lifeline.”

What to watch today

1. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte meets Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico in Bratislava.

2. Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas visits Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina.

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