Buoyed by expected growth in gas consumption from households and gas-fired automobiles, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, on Wednesday, that India’s natural gas consumption is likely to hit 103 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually by 2030.
The IEA report, India Gas Market Report: Outlook to 2030, pointed out that following over a decade of slow growth and periodic declines, India’s natural gas demand increased by more than 10 per cent in both 2023 and 2024, indicating an inflection point.
“While total gas consumption in 2023 was only marginally higher than 2011 levels, three key factors are now converging to drive substantial growth: rapid infrastructure expansion, recovering domestic production, and an expected easing of global gas market conditions,” it added.
Rising consumption
Infrastructure development is playing a crucial role in enabling market growth. Since 2019, India has almost quadrupled its number of compressed natural gas (CNG) stations and more than doubled the number of residential gas connections, while extending its transmission pipeline network by 40 per cent, the report said.
By 2030, the number of CNG stations and residential connections is expected to nearly double again, with the gas transmission grid expanding by an additional 50 per cent.
“The CGD sector is expected to lead consumption growth in India between now and 2030, supported by rapid CNG infrastructure expansion and competitive pricing against liquid fuels,” it added.
The heavy industry and manufacturing sectors are expected to add around 15 bcm of demand during this period (till 2030), while gas use in oil refining is forecast to increase by more than 4 bcm as more refineries connect to the network.
India is looking to increase the share of gas in its energy mix and the report identifies potential for even higher growth under an accelerated scenario, where targeted policy measures could push total demand to around 120 bcm by 2030 – comparable to the current gas consumption of South America.
This scenario would require additional policy support to drive higher utilisation of gas-fired power plants, faster adoption of LNG in heavy-duty transport, and more rapid expansion of city gas infrastructure.