Climate-informed and diversified energy solutions are essential if the world is to meet targets to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030, says an international report.
The report was jointly produced by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
The report looks at 2023, a year that saw a transition from a La Niña to an El Niño phenomenon, affecting key climatic variables for the energy sector such as wind speed, solar radiation, precipitation, and temperature. It was also the warmest year on record. This record, however, was broken again in 2024.
Demand and supply
Titled 2023 Year in Review: Climate-driven global renewable energy potential resources and energy demand, it observed that the acceleration of the global transition to renewable energy throws up a situation where weather and climate insights become increasingly important to ensure the reliability and resilience of energy systems and the planning of electricity demand and supplies.
Celeste Saul, Secretary-General Celeste, WMO; Francesco Camera, Director-General, IRENA; and Carlo Buontempo, Director, C3S; wrote in a joint foreword to the report climate has a direct bearing on electricity supply and demand across varying scenarios -solar power generation in drier-than-average conditions; wind power generation in regions experiencing shifts from La Niña to El Niño conditions; or hydropower generation in the face of fluctuating precipitation patterns.
Integrating insights
“Such challenges present unprecedented opportunities. Integration of climate insights into energy planning yields more reliable power generation, helps anticipate peaks in demand; and strengthens adaptability of future infrastructure development,” they added. Achieving 1.5 °C climate target necessitates substantial increases in renewable energy capacities by 2030 and 2050.
The report illustrates the potential applications of seasonal forecasts as a valuable tool for energy planning and management. Seasonal climate forecasts empower stakeholders to anticipate supply-demand fluctuations, optimise grid operations, enhance energy system resilience, and better prepare for extreme weather events.
Impact mitigation
Wind, solar, and hydropower combined with technologies such as geothermal and storage could help mitigate the impact of climate variability and change on renewable power generation and management. Regional collaboration and localised solutions will also play a key role in balancing supply-demand dynamics, optimising cross-border energy flows, and building resilient infrastructure.