The current active western disturbance weather pattern, which is seen bringing rains and snowfall, coupled with a similar one predicted next week, will likely lower the risks for the wheat crop in North-West and North India. This comes despite above normal temperature across the country in February, a month that also witnessed deficient rains.
The country will experience normal to above normal temperatures in March, said D S Pai, ADGM, Indian Meterological Department (IMD), announcing the seasonal weather forecast for March-May.
“This morning, we had a meeting with experts monitoring the crop conditions, who told us that there’s no impact on the wheat crop. In recent years, they have been using heat-resistant wheat varieties. Almost in 67 per cent of the area, the heat-resistant wheat variety has been sown,” said Pai .
59% rainfall deficiency
“During March, as far as the maximum temperature is concerned, we are expecting most parts of the country to witness normal to above normal temperature, except over southern parts of Peninsular India, and isolated pockets of North-East India, where normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely. Both maximum and minimum temperature in most parts of the country is likely to be above normal,” Pai said.
He said the rainfall deficiency for the country as a whole during January-February stood at 59 per cent, except for Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and Coastal Karnataka. February witnessed the maximum temperature anomaly over most parts of the country except northern part of North-East India and some parts of Southern Peninsula.
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The main weather events during February were the western disturbances (WD) that brought spells of rain and snowfall to the regions in the North West and some parts of North India.
“We had 7 WDs impacting North and North West India compared to 5 to 6 WDs climatologically, and all these were very weak. However the most active one is the current WD, which has caused significant rainfall or snowfall activity over the region. There’s one more WD expected during the first week of March,” he said.
La Nina conditions
On the impact of weather on crops such as wheat, Pai said, “So far, there has not been much impact. There can be some (impact) because of March climate, but we are not expecting anything big overall, as not very high temperature is expected up to mid-March.”
He said the cold wave was almost absent across the northern region this year. Most of the days, the night temperatures were warmer than normal in most parts across North and Central India. As temperatures were higher than normal, the fog was also absent in most parts of the Indo-Gangetic plain, Pai added.
Commenting on La Nina, Pai said: “Temporarily, for one or two months, there was a La Nina type of condition. But going forward, most of the model forecasts are indicating that temperature along the equatorial region of the Pacific is increasing. So, La Nina may not continue after April. That will become neutral ENSO condition” he said.
Low El Nino chances
“La Nina conditions, which are generally good for monsoon, are there currently, but persisting. But the forecast are indicating that as warming is slowly taking place in the Equatorial Pacific now, La Nina condition will not continue during the monsoon season,” Pai said.
The most likely situation, Pai said, is neutral ENSO condition. “There is a low probability for El Nino. Among the different three categories, La Nina, ENSO neutral and ENSO El Nino, El Nino has got the least probability, Pai said.