Gold rates today edge higher on weak US dollar, inflation fear. Opportunity to buy?

Gold rate today: Following weakness in the US dollar rates, renewed fear of the US inflation, tariff uncertainty, and rising safe-haven demand for the yellow metal, the MCX gold rate regained the psychological ₹86K peak during the early morning session on Monday. Gold futures contract on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) for April 2025 expiry opened with an upside gap at ₹85,981 per 10 gm and touched an intraday high of ₹86,074 per 10 gm within a few minutes of the Opening Bell.

Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said, “Weak economic indicators have raised fears of slower growth and potential inflation risks, which could push the US Federal Reserve toward further monetary easing. This scenario would exert pressure on the US dollar while supporting gold prices as a non-yielding asset.”

Sugandha said that key US non-farm payroll data reported 151K new job additions in February, slightly short of estimates. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1 per cent from the previous 4 per cent, a potential sign of a labour market slowdown.

“Despite positive equity market sentiment – particularly around AI stocks amid the DeepSeek frenzy – the local gold price was attention-grabbing. In fact, the Baidu Search Index of the keyword “gold” rocketed to its highest since 2013,” WGC wrote in its monthly Gold ETF Commentary.

Gold price today: Key levels to watch

On the pivots regarding MCX gold rates, Sugandha Sachdeva said, “On the domestic front, gold rate today faces significant resistance in the ₹86,350 to ₹86,600 per 10 gm zone. A successful breakout could push gold prices towards ₹87,500 per 10 gm mark. Conversely, failure to breach this resistance may lead to a downward correction, with support at ₹84,300 per 10 gm and further at ₹83,500 per 10 gm.”

Gold ETF in focus

Data made available by the World Gold Council (WGC) showed that global gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw continued inflows during February as holdings across all regions grew.

Investors in Asia in par bought gold ETFs aggressively in February, totalling USD 2.3 billion.

Amid uncertainty in stock markets, wealthy investors are investing in gold ETFs rather than buying physical gold. The year 2025 saw unprecedented inflows and strong interest in gold ETFs.

According to the Council, Indian investors maintained healthy gold ETF inflows, albeit at a reduced pace compared to January’s record levels.

Data showed that China led the inflows in February. Moving on to Japan, another key market, it saw inflows again — for the fifth consecutive month.

Funds in other regions added USD 159mn, their third consecutive monthly inflow. Australia once again dominated demand–experiencing its strongest month since September 2024–and South Africa also registered gains.

The sustained weakness in the equity markets has also been driving flows into gold ETFs, with investors pulling back from equities in favour of gold’s safe-haven appeal.

“We have now seen three consecutive months of strong global inflows which, combined with an upward trending gold price, have lifted total assets under management (AUM) to USD 306 billion,” WGC said.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.