Home broadband subscriptions for telecom companies are expected to increase 177 per cent to 111 million by FY2030 as opposed to 40 million in 2024, said HSBC Global Research.
“We expect home broadband to be the next big growth opportunity for telecom operators and expect TAM [Total Addressable Market] to expand to $7 billion as we forecast subs growing 2.75x to 111m by FY30e,” said HSBC, listing 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) service and fibre home passes as the key catalyst for TAM growth.
FWA adoption increased over the last nine months as equipment prices went down and operators strengthened their installation and distribution capabilities. Citing Reliance Industries’ recent 3QFY25 results, HSBC said that 70 per cent of the telco’s new AirFiber (FWA) connects are from beyond top 1000 towns.
“[This] reinforces our view on demand for the home broadband service. Telcos are well placed to capture a share of household entertainment spend with their bundled home broadband plans, which come with a rich content offering,” said the report.
The report also expects Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel to be the key beneficiaries of this trend, predicting Jio to capture 50 per cent of the market share by FY30e and reaching 56 million subs and Airtel to reach 23 per cent of market share by FY30e, with 25 million subs.
In FY24, Jio recorded 11.3 million subs with a 35 per cent annual growth. HSBC expects Jio’s home broadband subs to surge by 51 per cent CAGR over FY24-27e to 38.8 million. Similarly, Airtel reported 7.6 million subs in FY24 with a 26 per cent annual growth. The telco’s home broadband subs will increase by 28 per cent CAGR over FY24-27e to 15.9 million. Meanwhile, Vodafone Idea reported 1,043 million subs in Q4FY24.