India’s steel import witnessed a major decline in February – to 0.6 million tonnes (almost at April levels), both on a sequential as well as a month-on-month level, down 40 per cent and 29 per cent respectively, as discussions around an ongoing DGTR probe favouring imposition of safeguard duties impacted buying sentiments. There was some decline in incoming Chinese stocks too.
This is the second major decline in imports this year after November.
In November 2024 buyer sentiments here were impacted as China witnessed a brief period of price rise in the metal. Imports then was at 0.75 mt versus 1 mt-odd in November 2023 and against a similar 1 mt of the metal coming in October (around 25 – 30 per cent decline).
Exports sink further
Exports continued to be under-stress, witnessing a 60 per cent decline in February to 0.4 mt, from 1 mt levels. Sequentially (Feb vs Jan) shipment of the metal remained flat.
While India traders have resumed offers to the Middle East for benchmark hot rolled coils (HRCs), demand from key buyer markets in Europe were weak following anti-dumping investigations there. Offers to Vietnam was also subdued.
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On an 11-month comparative basis, imports remained on the higher side at 8.9 mt (7.7 mt), up 16 per cent y-o-y, and exports at 4.9 mt (6.7 mt), down 34 per cent y-o-y; indicating that India was a net importer of the alloy, as per a Steel Ministry report accessed by businessline.
For most months of the fiscal, India’s steel imports have been in the 0.70 – 1 mt range, barring April and June, when India steel-makers were still competing with Chinese players on price.
“Discussions around imposition of safeguard duty, and the Budget bringing in relief for Indian steel makers led to some slowdown in orders from Indian traders. This is reflected in February numbers,” a Ministry official said.
A market participant said, most of the metal orders were in January as numbers shot up to nearly 1 mt (almost up 15 per cent sequentially).
Indian mills hike price
Incidentally, Indian steel mills have initiated a ₹1400 – 1500 per tonne hike in HRC prices for March deliveries with price of the metal varying in the ₹48,500 per tonne range.
Planned maintenance at key mills may tighten supply coinciding with anticipated quarter-end demand. But, buyer price resistance and generally subdued market activity is expected to moderate any potential price increase, market research firm BigMint said in a report.
Till February, the Ministry report said, consumption grew by nearly 12 per cent y-o-y to 138-odd mt (123 mt); while finished steel production was 132.6 mt, up 5 per cent-odd.
Stock variation levels were in the negative as per the report, indicating lesser supplies in the market.
