The Valley of Kashmir at the peak of its peak winter season witnessed above- normal temperatures with a significant snowfall deficit.
The sharp decline in precipitation during January and February is likely to impact the agriculture sector and water security in the region.
Dr Mukhtar Ahamd, Director of Indian Meteorological Department ( IMD) for Jammu and Kashmir, told businessline that Kashmir recorded a minus 76.87 percent dip in precipitation between January 1 to January 6.
According to IMD data, Kashmir recorded an actual precipitation of 22.91 percent , compared to normal 99.07 percent during this period.
Similarly, Jammu division experienced 80.27 percent rainfall deficit from January 1 to February 6.
“The temperatures in January 2025 were above normal, fluctuating between 6 to 7 degrees Celsius”, said the IMD Director.
Despite freezing temperatures, south Kashmir experienced an unusual phenomenon with a spike in surface temperatures, rising by nearly by 10 percent between January 2 to January 4 2025.
The experts billed the phenomenon as air advection. However, the spike in temperature caused the snow to melt.
Concerns
Kashmir Valley, during Chilai Kalan—the harshest phase of winter from December 21 to January 29—typically experiences sub-zero temperatures and heavy snowfall. Meteorologists had predicted that the La Niña effect in 2024-2025 would bring significant precipitation to the region, as it did in 2018-2019 and 2021-2022. However, despite these forecasts, the Valley has witnessed a snowfall deficit, raising concerns among farmers over irrigation and early pest infestations.
Dr. Parvez Ahmad Teli, a Kashmir-based geographer, warned that the snow deficit could lead to reduced water levels in streams and rivers.
“This can severely impact agriculture, particularly water-intensive crops,” he said.
He also pointed out that prolonged dry spells and above-normal temperatures in winter threaten water security.
“Water discharge in key streams and rivers is below normal,” he said.
Teli cautioned that the dry conditions could also affect the hydropower generation.
Rashid Ahmad, an apple cultivator, expressed concern over the warm winter triggering early pest infestations, which could impact the region’s fruit industry.