Not long after the US and Russia sat down for their first high-level talks since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, one of the US’s biggest multinationals received a call.
The Russian government was planning a meeting to discuss the path for western companies to re-enter the country. Would this particular multinational, the Russian government official on the phone asked, be interested in bringing back some of its brands?
As Moscow and Washington re-engage politically at warp speed — discussing a possible end to the Ukraine conflict and an in-person meeting between presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump — the US-Russian economic relationship has become a key proxy for restoring ties.
On Monday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he was in “serious discussions” with Putin about “major Economic Development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia”.
The same day, Putin said Russia was ready to co-operate with the US extracting minerals from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, and that American companies could make “good money” from aluminium extraction in Russia.
The public comments mirror what market participants are witnessing behind the scenes: since Trump’s election, Moscow has been planting the seeds for a return of foreign businesses, even as some Kremlin-friendly voices lambast such companies for leaving and claim there may be no space left for them in the market.
David Lorello, a partner at Covington & Burling, said the Kremlin was “pitching to the United States the economic opportunities of a resolution to the war”.
Any returning companies would face formidable obstacles including emboldened local competition and an uncertain legal environment in a country that remains at war and targeted by comprehensive sanctions.
Yet few western multinationals are looking to rule out a return; many want to hold on to buyback options for their Russian businesses.
“These guys are commercial beings,” said a western veteran of the Russian market. “As Lenin [reportedly] said, the capitalist will sell you the rope by which you will hang him.”
According to the Kyiv School of Economics, 475 foreign companies have quit the Russian market since the invasion of Ukraine, while another 1,360 companies have scaled back their business there.
Kirill Dmitriev, Russia’s newly appointed special envoy for foreign economic co-operation, has claimed that US companies lost $324bn as a result of pulling out — a number disputed by the KSE — and has said US companies that left could start returning within months.
According to KSE estimates seen by the Financial Times, foreign companies have suffered at least $167bn in direct losses over three years of the full-scale war, including write-offs and court rulings that resulted in partial seizures.
More than $4bn of assets of American companies were seized, including those of ExxonMobil, JPMorgan and Universal Beverages, with US groups accounting for about a third of western companies’ overall losses.
Western executives and their advisers on Russia said it was premature to expect a surge of big-name foreign brands returning. Many endured a painful, costly process of leaving, as Moscow imposed escalating fees, regulations and pressure to sell to certain powerful buyers. At one point, two major multinationals trying to leave — Carlsberg and Danone — had their Russian businesses seized by the state.
At the same time, the Russian market has shifted since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with newly powerful businessmen — backed by government figures — benefiting from the spoils left behind by foreign brands.
Such players have also gained from an emboldened prosecutor-general’s office that has seized a string of Russian companies, citing the foreign passports of their owners or what they said were illegal privatisations as grounds to seize and sell them to friendly bidders.
Despite this backdrop, people working with companies that left Russia said that since Washington and Moscow held talks in Saudi Arabia this month, they had seen increasing interest in returning — particularly from the US.
“I wouldn’t say there is an avalanche, but there are a lot of companies dipping their toe in the water to see what the temperature is,” said one western executive in Moscow.
Over the past two weeks, Kremlin-friendly media outlets and Telegram channels have claimed that big-name brands ranging from fashion chains Zara and Uniqlo to Coca-Cola, Visa and Mastercard were actively examining a return.
None of the cited multinationals have publicly confirmed such plans, and people close to the companies said there were no concrete plans to immediately re-enter.
The US multinational contacted by the Russian government, which did not want to be identified, said it told the government it was too early to discuss the return of its household-name brands.
However, a representative said: “It’s quite obvious that many companies are looking for these opportunities.”
In Moscow, foreign market participants said they had seen small signs of interest. An adviser to western companies, who did not want to be named, said he had been contacted by a multinational hoping to safeguard the option it secured to buy back its Russian business.
Other people working on behalf of western businesses in Moscow said there had been tentative inquiries in the Russian real estate and advertising markets, or outreach to legal counsel about steps involved in a return.
A source familiar with Uniqlo’s Russia business said it had been in a “sleeping state” since the company suspended operations at about 50 stores. The person said reopenings were not yet being actively considered, but could be carried out quickly if the Russian economy opens up again.
“Some [foreign] companies really have started testing the waters,” said Ilia Rachkov, partner at the Moscow-based NSP law office. “There is a gentle feeling and sniffing around.”
Executives and advisers said companies producing fast-moving consumer goods or running restaurants could move rapidly.
“If you’re a Netflix or Coca-Cola or McDonald’s with a non-technology-sensitive industry with an easy-to-engage business model, then you probably come back more quickly,” said the western executive in Moscow.
Rachkov, the lawyer, said companies face a ticking timeline unrelated to the Trump-Putin talks: some received buyback options for their Russian businesses that will soon expire.
“Many are now negotiating, bargaining. I’ve heard this about food producers, the consumer sector,” Rachkov said. “The new management demands that they remain minority shareholders in exchange for an option extension, or provide a golden parachute after the option is exercised.”
In Moscow, Putin has ordered his cabinet to prepare for the return of western companies, albeit with conditions favouring local players. The finance ministry has suggested that returning companies from so-called unfriendly countries would need approval from the government’s commission on foreign investment.
Denis Manturov, Russia’s first deputy prime minister, suggested that any retail chains planning to return would need to also open in Russian-occupied Ukraine. He indicated that conditions could be imposed on particular companies and sectors, such as a bar on foreign automakers returning to their previous market positions.
“It will no longer be possible to get [the asset] and return the way they got it and left,” Manturov said in a TV interview.
Western market participants in contact with Russian officials said they expected companies that “left and gave the middle finger” — as one of US executive put it — would have a harder time coming back than those that left quietly.
They said the road to return was likely to be easier for US companies as their government pursues rapprochement with Russia. One European executive in Moscow expressed concern about the “danger and risk for a level playing field”, while other market participants seized on comments by Dmitriev suggesting that US companies could replace European players in Russia’s market economy.
Experts and former officials said the rapprochement was unlikely to bridge the structural gap between the two economies. The US and Russia’s trade volume in 2021, the last full year before the war, was $36bn, a fraction of the EU’s $270bn trade with Moscow.
“We’re competitors on the global stage. Anything that the Russians export and in major volumes are things that the United States would also want to export in large volumes,” said Thomas Graham, a former senior director for Russia at the US National Security Council.
But that may not be immediately apparent to Trump and his entourage, said a former major US investor in Russia. “Putin thinks that Trump’s soft spot is trade and money,” they said. “If he could make an announcement about American energy companies coming back, Trump would view that as a victory.”
Additional reporting by Madeleine Speed in London and Harry Dempsey in Tokyo