Sir Keir Starmer’s hopes of avoiding a widespread party rebellion over the government’s £5bn welfare cuts will be tested this weekend as Labour MPs return to face voters in their constituencies.
The prime minister on Wednesday said the current welfare system was “broken” and that he would not shrug his shoulders and walk past a million people “trapped on benefits”.
The public appears to be with him: pollster YouGov has found 68 per cent of the population supports reform to the welfare system.
But Labour MPs expect angry confrontations on Friday when they hold surgeries with their constituents, whether from those directly affected by the cuts or their relatives.
David Lammy, foreign secretary, told a fractious cabinet meeting last week that one member of his extended family was on benefits when they probably should not be, according to people familiar with the meeting. Lammy declined to comment.
Local unhappiness with the policy — which will result in up to 1.2mn people losing benefits — could make MPs even more anxious about the changes ahead of a vote expected this year on some of the measures in the Commons.
So far the prime minister has maintained party discipline while driving through a series of unpopular money-raising policies — from stripping winter fuel payments from pensioners to taxing farmers in the Budget. The question is whether this holds.
“I’m starting to feel like a frog getting gradually boiled; it’s one difficult decision after another,” said one MP.
“This is not what any of us became Labour MPs to do,” one senior MP added. “It’s not how Labour should be running the country.”
Another usually ultraloyal MP said the benefits issue had been “appallingly handled” by the leadership.
One Labour party veteran added: “There are a lot of miserable people in the party right now, and they’re going to have to go back to their CLPs [constituency Labour parties] and explain a lot of stuff that cuts right across what the party stands for.”
The reforms announced on Monday by work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall are also an attempt to get to grips with the spiralling cost of the social security system, and convince financial markets that the government has a grip on the public finances.
The timing, a week before chancellor Rachel Reeves presents her Spring Statement, was no accident.
“This is the toughest thing we have done,” said one of Starmer’s close allies.
“There’s a dawning realisation that this is really quite a big and painful decision, but that there isn’t really any alternative,” said another Starmer supporter.
The party leadership knew that the “Campaign Group” of the most left-wing MPs would be up in arms about the changes. Diane Abbott, former shadow home secretary under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, said there was “nothing moral” about the changes during prime minister’s questions on Wednesday.
“This is not about morality,” she said. “This is about the Treasury’s wish to balance the country’s books on the backs of the most vulnerable and poorest people in this society.”
But dissent has spread much further through the Labour ranks, with many otherwise loyal MPs unhappy about the changes.
The prime minister’s team prided itself on a ruthless approach to candidate selection ahead of last year’s general election, weeding out almost all applicants with fervently left-wing views in favour of centrist politicians.
As a result most of the 231 new MPs — more than half of the total Parliamentary Labour party — do not harbour any obvious tendencies towards rebellion. But the welfare announcement has tested the discipline of even the most pliant newcomers.
Polly Billington, a former special adviser to energy secretary Ed Miliband, asked in the Commons how “reducing support for those who struggle to wash and dress themselves” would solve worklessness.
“Some of the loyalist new intake are not as happy as they make out,” said a Labour veteran. “They won’t openly criticise but they are unhappy with the situation, not happy having to defend cuts to farmers or people on benefits”.
The government has not yet set out the precise mechanism for introducing the changes, which are still subject to consultation, although ministers have said the changes to “personal independence payments” or Pip eligibility require legislation and will be put to a vote.
It is hard to ascertain how many MPs will actively vote against their leadership, which last year suspended half a dozen backbenchers for rebelling over the two-child benefit cap.
“A week ago I would have said that I’d be likely to vote against, but now I’m in two minds,” said one Labour MP.
Although YouGov finds broad public support for reforming welfare, only 10 per cent of people believe that those with a disability receive too much support.
Among those voicing dissent on Wednesday was Colum Eastwood, an MP from Northern Ireland’s SDLP — a sister party to Labour.
He told the Commons of one constituent whose children had to cut her food up, wash her, and help her use the toilet. Under the Conservative system, she receives payments, but “under the prime minister’s new proposed system, she will get zero — nothing”, he added.
“After 14 years of the Tory government, and many of us wanting to see the back of them, can the prime minister answer one question: What was the point, if Labour is going to do this?”
