Benchmark indices opened flat on Thursday morning as traders remained cautious ahead of the monthly futures and options (F&O) expiry, with ongoing concerns about potential US tariffs and continued foreign institutional investor (FII) selling weighing on market sentiment.
As of 9.50 AM, the Sensex opened at 74,706.60 compared to its previous close of 74,602.12 and is currently trading at 74,608.77, up by 6.65 points or 0.01 per cent. Similarly, the Nifty opened at 22,568.95 against its previous close of 22,547.55 and is now at 22,553.45, gaining 5.90 points or 0.03 per cent.
Market participants exhibited hesitation due to the mid-week holiday and the approaching monthly contract expiry, resulting in subdued trading activity.
“Although markets may see a steady positive opening, volatility is likely to be the hallmark as traders roll over their February F&O contracts which expire today,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd. “Worries over tariffs will continue to weigh on domestic stocks with plenty of uncertainties surrounding the timing and the size, while relentless FII selling leaves investors to worry a lot as they fear the brutal sell-off is likely to get worse.”
The top gainers on the NSE included Shriram Finance, which surged 4.07 per cent to ₹597.65, followed by Bajaj Finserv (2.39 per cent), JSW Steel (2.06 per cent), IndusInd Bank (1.98 per cent), and Bajaj Finance (1.95 per cent). Meanwhile, UltraTech Cement led the losers, falling 3.58 per cent to ₹10,571.80, with Bajaj Auto (-2.02 per cent), Hero MotoCorp (-1.47 per cent), Trent (-1.38 per cent), and ONGC (-1.18 per cent) also declining.
Technical analysts suggest a non-directional market pattern as traders await a clear breakout. “The market is witnessing non-directional activity, perhaps as traders are waiting for a breakout on either side,” remarked Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. “On the higher side, 22600/74800 would be the immediate breakout level for the bulls. Above this level, the market could move up to 22700-22800/75000-75350. Conversely, below 22500/74500, selling pressure is likely to accelerate.”
Several positive factors provided some support to the market. The US Dollar Index fell to a two-month low below 106, while oil prices dropped to a three-month low below $73 per barrel. Reports of potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine also boosted investor sentiment, with Ukraine’s President scheduled to meet with the US President.
“The market is expected to open on a positive note due to several factors. Global IT giant Nvidia reported impressive quarterly results and strong earnings guidance, which is boosting sentiment,” noted Vikas Jain, Head of Research at Reliance Securities. “Additionally, falling oil prices have dropped to a three-month low below $73 per barrel, fueled by hopes of peace talks regarding the Ukraine conflict.”
However, persistent concerns remained about US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats. “Oil price near the lowest close this year to below $73/bbl with tariff threats from US President Donald Trump and a range of supply issues in focus,” Jain added. “US President Trump said planned tariffs against Mexico and Canada were ‘not stopping,’ but the timing wasn’t clear.”
FII selling has continued to exert pressure on the market. Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, pointed out: “In FY25, so far, FIIs have sold stocks in the cash market for ₹3,87,976 crores. Interestingly, the DIIs have more than compensated for this selling through buying for ₹5,55,519 crores. Despite this, the market has been trending down.”
The NIFTY-50 has closed in an inside range of the previous day’s candle, awaiting movement in either direction. “The multi-month average placed at 22,500 will be key to watch from current levels while on the higher side 22,800-23,000 will be a strong resistance,” Jain observed regarding the Nifty outlook.
For Bank Nifty, analysts noted it opened higher but failed to sustain near the previous day’s high and witnessed selling pressure. “A long-legged doji candle near the bottom range and the previous day low of 48,300 will act as strong support from current levels,” added Jain.
As the market navigates through expiry day volatility, sector-specific movements are expected. Pharma stocks could see positive movement following USFDA approvals, while oil marketing companies like HPCL, BPCL, and IOC might benefit from falling crude prices. Tech stocks remain in focus after Nvidia’s strong quarterly results.