Benchmark indices opened lower on Friday morning as traders remained cautious amid weak global cues and concerns over potential tariff impacts. The Sensex opened at 75,612.61 compared to its previous close of 75,735.96 and is currently trading at 75,491.89, down by 244.07 points or 0.32 per cent. Similarly, the Nifty opened at 22,857.20 against its previous close of 22,913.15 and is now at 22,836.55, losing 76.60 points or 0.33 per cent.
Metal stocks showed strength as commodity prices reached one-month highs, with Hindalco leading gainers on the NSE, up 1.68 per cent. Other top gainers included Eicher Motors (+1.34 per cent), Shriram Finance (+1.30 per cent), NTPC (+1.00 per cent), and Tata Steel (+0.97 per cent). In contrast, M&M led the losers, falling 2.53 per cent, followed by Wipro (-1.48 per cent), UltraTech Cement (-1.40 per cent), Dr. Reddy’s (-1.26 per cent), and Kotak Mahindra Bank (-1.26 per cent).
“Traders should brace for a volatile session, with aggressive long positions at Dalal Street being risky, akin to building on quicksand,” warned Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd. He identified multiple market concerns including “Wall Street’s overnight drop, looming Trump tariffs disrupting trade, persistent US inflation, and a cautious Fed approach on rate cuts.”
Ameya Ranadive, Sr Technical Analyst at StoxBox, observed that “the Indian markets are expected to make a tepid start, as indicated by Gift Nifty, with weakness likely to persist, given the overall weak global market sentiments.” He noted that “in terms of options data, there is considerable open interest (OI) at the 23000 level, which is functioning as resistance. Conversely, significant open interest (OI) at the 22800 level is providing support on the downside.”
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VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, cautioned that “Nifty and Sensex are in correction mode, which could be due to prevalent profit-booking sentiment among investors, particularly towards stocks that are either overbought or haven’t performed well in recent quarters.” She advised that “the 22,710 and 22,800 levels should be seen as a key range, as it could potentially spell the market’s direction for Q4.”
Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking, projected that “after a negative opening, Nifty can find support at 22,800 followed by 22,700 and 22,500.” He warned that “on the downside, 22,800 serves as a crucial support level, with a breach below this mark potentially triggering extended selling toward the 22,700–22,500 range.”
Global markets showed mixed reactions after Walmart’s disappointing forecast raised concerns about consumer demand worldwide. The US markets dropped up to 1 per cent overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing the steepest decline among major indices.
Vikas Jain, Head of Research at Reliance Securities, noted, “The market is expected to open marginally lower due to weak global cues.” He added that “domestic markets haven’t yet participated in the rallies seen in the US and European markets due to concerns about the US tariff issue,” though he believes “the impact of the US imposing reciprocal tariffs on India will be minimal, according to global rating agencies.”
Commodity markets showed significant movement, with gold climbing to a new record as geopolitical tensions underpinned demand for haven assets. Brent crude gained 2 per cent to reach a one-month high of $77/bbl on increasing supply uncertainty and falling US oil inventory.
Technical analysts remain cautious but see potential support levels. “The 22,800-22,700 zone continues to be a significant level for the index, acting as a safety net for traders and investors,” said Sameet Chavan, Head Research at Angel One. Meanwhile, Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities identified 22950/75800 as crucial levels, suggesting that “if the market moves above 22950/75800, it could rally to the 23050-23100/76100-76300 range.”
FII selling pressure continues to impact large-cap stocks, with Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) selling equities worth ₹3,312 crore on February 20, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth ₹3,908 crore.
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Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, explained, “The FII selling in India is likely to continue, particularly in the context of renewed interest in Chinese stocks which are cheap and are staging a smart recovery.” However, he views this as “an opportunity for long-term investors,” especially in “select midcaps like in the defence sector which have corrected and are fairly valued now.”
The broader market shows some resilience despite the benchmark weakness. “The broader market remains strong as momentum shifts toward mid-cap and small-cap stocks, which have underperformed compared to large-cap stocks,” observed Jain, noting that “in the last two sessions, mid-cap and small-cap stocks gained nearly 3 per cent after falling over 30 per cent despite the Nifty dropping 10 per cent.”
Investors are advised to monitor key sectors including metals, defense, PSU banks, railways, NBFCs, and auto ancillaries, which analysts believe may continue their positive momentum. Additionally, EV stocks are expected to gain traction following news of the government’s upcoming new EV policy.
