Stock markets opened on a cautiously positive note Monday morning as the Sensex opened at 74,474.98, higher than its previous close of 74,332.58, and is currently at 74,559.39, up by 226.81 points or 0.31 per cent. Meanwhile, the Nifty opened at 22,521.85, slightly lower than its previous close of 22,552.50, but climbed to 22,625.30, gaining 72.80 points or 0.32 per cent at 9.40 am. The mixed opening follows a significant rebound last week that snapped a three-week losing streak amid lingering concerns over global trade tensions.
Power Grid emerged as the top gainer in early trade, surging 3.21 per cent with robust volume of 75,20,995 shares. Other major gainers included Bajaj Finance (2.09 per cent), BEL (1.92 per cent), Bajaj Finserv (1.75 per cent), and BPCL (1.39 per cent). On the losing side, IndusInd Bank plummeted 3.20 per cent, followed by Bajaj Auto (-1.32 per cent), M&M (-1.26 per cent), Trent (-1.14 per cent), and Titan (-0.81 per cent).
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The cautious sentiment was reflected in Gift Nifty, which traded down 0.2 per cent despite positive signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. “Gift Nifty remains cautious despite positive signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who emphasized confidence in declining inflation and a stable US economy,” noted Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd.
Investor concerns persist over former President Trump’s tariff policies, with FIIs continuing their selling streak. According to market data, FIIs sold equities worth ₹2,035.10 crore on March 7, while DIIs provided support by purchasing equities worth ₹2,320.36 crore on the same day. The cumulative FII selling has reached ₹413,907 crore this fiscal year.
“The threat of reciprocal tariffs on India starting early April is a major negative which the market cannot shrug off. There is no clarity on which all sectors will be impacted by the tariffs,” cautioned Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. He advised investors to “play it safe by focusing on domestic consumption themes which will not be impacted by the potential tariffs.”
Recent geopolitical developments have added to market uncertainty, with US President Trump stating he is “strongly considering large-scale sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and peace deal with Ukraine is reached.”
Technical analysts remain cautiously optimistic about market direction. “Nifty has staged an impressive recovery of more than 650 points from its recent swing low of 21,964. The short-term trend remains bullish as momentum continues to build,” said Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities. He identified key resistance in the 22,700-22,725 range and strong support at 22,300.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted that Nifty has formed “a reversal formation on both the daily and weekly charts, which supports further upside from the current levels.” His strategy recommendation is to “buy on dips between 22500 and 22450” while protecting long positions with a stop loss at 22300.
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In the commodities market, gold and silver saw profit-taking from recent highs as US 10-year Treasury yields rebounded above 4.30 per cent. “Gold has support at $2894-2875 while resistance at $2927-2942. In INR gold has support at ₹85,550-85,320, while resistance at ₹86,030-86,270,” reported Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd.
Crude oil prices remain volatile, briefly touching a 22-month low before rebounding last week. “We expect crude oil prices to remain volatile in today’s session. Crude oil is having support at $66.00-65.40 and resistance is at $67.25-68.00,” added Kalantri.
Sectorally, all major indices traded positive last week, with defense and metal indices showing remarkable strength, gaining 10.50 per cent and 9 per cent respectively. Market participants await inflation data from the US, Europe, and India this week, which will be key factors in determining interest rate decisions by the Fed and RBI.