Claudia Sheinbaum strode out of the towering doors of the national palace to salute an all-female military guard before addressing a crowd of hundreds of thousands in the capital.
As Mexico’s president thundered through a speech celebrating the pause of blanket 25 per cent tariffs on its exports to the US, her supporters cried: “You are not alone!”
The gathering this month was one sign of how Sheinbaum has turned the external threat of US President Donald Trump into a domestic boon. Amid fears of tariffs, border shutdowns and even US military action in Mexico, she has rallied the nation around her government in a swirl of nationalism, pushing her approval ratings above 80 per cent.
“We’re here to congratulate ourselves, because in the relationship with the United States, with its government, dialogue and respect prevailed,” she told the crowd. “We are neighbours, we have the responsibility to collaborate and co-ordinate, but we must be clear . . . the country comes first.”
While threatening and criticising Mexico, Trump has been unusually respectful of Sheinbaum, calling her a “wonderful woman” and thanking her for her “hard work and co-operation”.
That has formed a stark contrast with his treatment of Canada’s leaders, who have been more confrontational and made threats of counter-tariffs. Trump has threatened to annex the country and referred to former prime minister Justin Trudeau as “governor”.
When asked recently whether Mexico would suffer the same doubling of steel and aluminium tariffs with which Trump threatened Canada, Sheinbaum responded: “No, we’re respectful.”
The leftwing leader has avoided direct criticism of Trump and is playing for time before announcing any retaliation against his tariffs, while pushing back on less central issues such as his attempt to rename the Gulf of Mexico.
Although the approach is yet to earn a meaningful long-term concession from Trump, it has won her admiration at home and abroad. Domestic critics and some business leaders have softened, even as they worry about her broader moves to reassert state influence over the economy and overhaul independent institutions including the judiciary.
“It strengthens her and gives her the image of someone with a strong personality,” said Francisco Abundis, founder of Mexican pollster Parametria. “There are actions that even the opposition has applauded.”
Sheinbaum has made numerous offerings to try to placate Trump, who has said he wants to stop the flow of migrants and the deadly drug fentanyl into the US.
She has sent 10,000 national guard soldiers to the northern border, increased tariffs on China, and overturned normal extradition procedures to carry out the largest-ever handover of Mexican cartel operatives to the US, including one man who had been wanted for decades.
Abundis said: “There might be a big debate or controversy between specialists over whether it was legal or not, but in the end the message it sends is that of a determined president who makes decisions.”
Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City, inherited a list of policy prescriptions from her mentor and predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador. She is implementing most of them to the letter, including firing all judges to replace them with elected figures and eliminating several independent regulators.
But the delivery of wanted drug traffickers was part of a clear pivot in security policy away from López Obrador’s “hugs not bullets” agenda towards a more aggressive approach to the drug cartels that control swaths of Mexico. Trump’s threats have appeared to help her.
“Claudia Sheinbaum has managed to do a kind of ju-jitsu with the pressures from Trump,” said Mexican political commentator Carlos Bravo Regidor, referring to the Brazilian martial art that teaches using an opponent’s force to your advantage.
“It’s helped her take her popularity to the moon . . .[and] allowed her to move faster and more decisively on changes she wanted to make to López Obrador’s policies she inherited.”
Sheinbaum took power in October facing vast challenges.
Mexico’s economy is slowing sharply, with the OECD projecting an outright recession and 1.3 per cent contraction this year, while the government is implementing the largest budget cuts in decades. Her party’s domestic agenda of electing judges and creating new regulators across several sectors is cutting into business confidence just as investment is badly needed.
Perhaps her biggest test will be maintaining unity in her broad, loosely-defined party, Morena. As the image of its founder López Obrador fades, fissures between key factions are increasingly evident. But her success with Trump may help, analysts said.
“Sheinbaum is strengthened versus her party, more empowered for her domestic agenda,” said Carlos Ramírez, a consultant at Integralia. “Trump is a godsend for justifying an underperforming economy.”
At some point, though, Trump and Sheinbaum’s objectives may become harder to align. He has accused the government of an “intolerable alliance” with drug cartels; Mexican media are furiously speculating she may eventually be pressed into handing over senior figures in her coalition for prosecution.
“When she begins to try to pull those nerves from the muscle of government, elected politicians, mayors, functionaries, cops, she’s going to run into resistance. That’s a third rail,” said Tony Payan, Director of the US-Mexico Center at Rice University’s Baker Institute.
Many point out, while praising her cool-headed strategy, that she has ended up with almost exactly the same deal on tariffs as Canada. Trump has placed 25 per cent levies on about half Mexico’s exports to the US, while the remainder will also face tariffs from April 2 — unless he delays them again.
The question is whether the US president’s apparent personal respect for Sheinbaum will bear fruit beyond warm comments and social media posts.
Bravo Regidor said: “Sheinbaum can do very little, but the little she can do, she is doing well.”
