Myanmar earthquake tests military junta’s grip

After Cyclone Nargis pounded Myanmar’s south-western coast in 2008, the country’s military rulers turned away US warships laden with supplies and waited weeks before accepting aid that they feared would be a cover for regime change.

But as the country faces its latest natural disaster Myanmar’s military leadership has struck a different tone, declaring a state of emergency and calling for humanitarian assistance and blood donations just hours after a 7.7 magnitude earthquake devastated the country’s second city, Mandalay.

That shift demonstrates the regime’s vulnerability four years after seizing power in a coup, analysts said, as it battles to fend off widespread armed resistance across the country and international pushback. 

“This [receptiveness to help] is a reflection of how serious the crisis is, but also how little capacity they have to respond,” said Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser at the Crisis Group. 

“There’s no hiding or spinning this,” he added of a crisis that has struck Myanmar’s cultural heartland. “It’s not down in the [Ayeyarwady river] delta, like Nargis,” referring to the country’s sprawling rice basket. Military leader Min Aung Hlaing “has got to be seen to be doing a good job and he’s got to deliver”.

More than 2,700 people have been killed in the quake and 4,500 injured, according to military authorities, and the figures are expected to rise. 

“The earthquake has amplified, multiplied the misery in this country,” said Dr Unni Krishnan, global humanitarian director for UK-based Plan International.

Analysts and aid workers said Myanmar’s ability to rebuild relies in large part on international partners, with its own economy in tatters after years of civil war. But it comes as the US, which was the country’s single largest source of humanitarian assistance last year, has slashed foreign aid.

Myanmar’s economy — which was undeveloped, relying on resource extraction, agriculture and garment manufacturing — has been enfeebled by western sanctions since the coup in 2021, which deposed the elected government of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

Since then, growth has stalled, inflation has soared and the poverty rate has nearly doubled to about 50 per cent of the population, according to a recent report by the UN Development Programme.

“The economy has been hanging by a thread” leaving the country “ill-equipped to deal with an earthquake of such magnitude”, analysts at Moody’s Analytics wrote in a note.

Already, rescue teams from China, Russia, India, Singapore and Thailand are supporting local authorities. The UK has pledged £10mn of support while the US has allocated $2mn through local humanitarian groups. A USAID emergency response team was also deployed, the US embassy said, despite the Trump administration’s efforts to dissolve the agency.

The US provided between 25 per cent and 40 per cent of all humanitarian funding to Myanmar between 2019 and 2024, according to Switzerland-based ACAPS, including $129mn, or 30 per cent, of the UN’s humanitarian response plan last year.

This year, that programme is only 5 per cent financed, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Overall, the state department has slashed more than 85 per cent of USAID programmes, including all but three in Myanmar. 

The junta’s response will also be closely watched by China, Myanmar’s neighbour and primary patron, which supports the regime and some armed rebel groups. While Beijing had no affection for Min Aung Hlaing, said Horsey, “it could not abide a sudden collapse of the regime” and a power vacuum on its border.

The disaster struck the core of the military’s territory, which comprises less than half of the country, with strategic border regions in the hands of their opponents.

But even in its heartlands the junta faced widespread public opposition, experts said, after it launched a brutal campaign against pro-democracy “people’s defence forces”.

“After the coup, a lot of communities switched from . . . resistance to revolution,” said Horsey. The military “dare not show their face in most of these communities”.

In the past, Myanmar’s military has been accused of blocking aid to opposition-controlled areas, such as western Rakhine state in 2023. 

“The junta has very little capacity for response,” said Morgan Michaels, research fellow at IISS in Singapore, though it was “absolutely” possible that the junta would deny aid to areas controlled by insurgent groups.

The fact that immediate resources will be focused on denser urban areas that the military controls, such as Mandalay and the capital Naypyidaw, “will also contribute to the impression that the junta is directing aid to certain areas”. 

The devastation of Cyclone Nargis, which ultimately killed more than 100,000 people, sparked anger within Myanmar and drew international attention, putting the ruling generals on the defensive. Former US president Barack Obama made democratic transition in Myanmar a diplomatic priority. Shortly after the cyclone, the generals embarked on a transition to semi-civilian rule, which proved shortlived.

While experts said the need for aid could offer some leverage on the regime, few think the earthquake will result in international pressure for change given acute global conflicts elsewhere.

The rebel Three Brotherhood Alliance — which has been among the most effective resistance groups, staging a lightning campaign near the Chinese border in late 2023 — declared a one-month humanitarian pause to fighting late on Tuesday.

The National Unity Government, a shadow body of deposed lawmakers, made a similar pledge on Saturday to halt offensives for two weeks.

But the military regime has continued to carry out air strikes.

Analysts say there could also be an opportunity for the rebels to escalate attacks, particularly as Myanmar’s mountainous borderlands, where armed groups prevail, were less affected.

“If there were hangar collapses, or destruction of fuel storage depots . . . then maybe you could see the military push for some sort of de-escalation out of necessity,” said Michaels. “This is a good moment to strike at the regime.”

Additional reporting by Owen Walker in Singapore; cartography by Cleve Jones; satellite and data visualisation by Jana Tauschinski