Last September, when the Indian stock market was soaring, many experts predicted that the Nifty 50 could reach the 28,000 mark within a few months. However, they have been met with a rude shock.
The Nifty 50 is now down about 13 per cent from its record high of 26,277, reached on September 27. The index has been down since October on a monthly scale. On Friday, February 14, the index ended with a loss of 0.44 per cent at 22,929.25, extending its losing streak to the eighth consecutive session.
While some recovery is expected as the market has entered oversold territory, a new bull phase is unlikely to begin anytime soon. In fact, the road ahead looks challenging.
More pain in store?
Experts expect the Indian stock market to remain under pressure in the short term, even though there could be intermittent relief rallies. They highlight the following five factors that may weigh on market sentiment:
1. Trump Tariff uncertainty
US President Donald Trump has jolted global markets with his tariff moves. Giving a fresh blow to market sentiment, he has announced reciprocal tariffs. This means the US will levy the same level of tariffs on goods as charged by the exporting countries if their tariffs on similar products are high. Experts say his reciprocal tariffs may create significant headwinds for global businesses and may even cause a widespread trade war with the allies and adversaries alike.
Trump’s tariff policies are expected to keep investors on tenterhooks and markets in the doldrums.
“The market consolidation may continue for some time. The tariff tension is going to keep the market under pressure till the time we have clarity,” said Pankaj Pandey, the head of research at ICICI Securities.
