Nifty 50, Sensex today: What to expect from Indian stock market in trade on March 4 after Trump tariffs

The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Tuesday, tracking sell-off in global markets after US President Donald Trump announced the start of tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 22,093 level, a discount of nearly 167 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.

On Monday, the domestic equity market ended lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 holding above 22,100.

The Sensex declined 112 points, or 0.15%, to close at 73,085.94, while the Nifty 50 settled 5.40 points, or 0.02%, lower, at 22,119.30.

Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:

Sensex Prediction

Sensex ended down by 112.16 points at 73,085.94 on Monday, finding support near 72,800 and bouncing back sharply.

“Technically, Sensex has formed a bearish candle on the daily charts and is still holding a lower top formation on the intraday charts, which is largely negative. We believe that the current market texture is weak but oversold; hence, we could expect a quick pullback rally from the current levels,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.

For day traders, he suggests 72,800 would act as a sacrosanct support zone. As long as the market is trading above this level, the pullback formation is likely to continue.

“On the upside, 73,400 would be the immediate resistance zone for the bulls. If the Sensex moves above 73,300, it could rally up to 73,500 – 73,800. On the flip side, if it falls below 72,800, traders may prefer to exit their long positions,” Chouhan said.

Nifty OI Data

The derivatives market maintains a bearish bias, with call writers dominating put sellers, signalling a guarded stance.

“The significant open interest build-up at the 22,500-call strike (1.15 crore contracts) marks it as a robust resistance level. Meanwhile, substantial put accumulation at the 22,000 strike (72 lakh contracts) solidifies this level as a reliable support base. The 22,050 – 22,500 range remains under severe call writing pressure, while a shift in put writing to lower strikes further underscores the bearish tone,” said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has sharply dropped from 0.86 to 0.71, highlighting the prevailing negative sentiment among market participants. Additionally, the Max Pain level at 22,400 indicates that despite the elevated volatility, buyers might attempt to cushion declines in the near term, he added.

Nifty 50 Prediction

Nifty 50 consolidated with weak bias on March 3 and closed the day lower by 05 points.

“A small negative candle was formed on the daily chart with upper and long lower shadow. Technically, this market action indicates volatile movement with minor upside recovery attempts from near the 22,000 mark,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.

Though Nifty 50 showed minor upside recovery from the lows, he believes the underlying trend remains negative.

“Any upside bounces from here could encounter resistance around 22,300 levels. A decisive move above 22,500 levels could confirm short term bottom reversal in the Nifty 50. On the other side, further fall below 22,000 levels could find next support around the 21,800 – 21,700 band,” said Shetti.

Om Mehra, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities, noted that while Nifty 50 tested the critical 22,004, it has managed to avert a breakdown for now.

“The gap between Nifty 50 and its key moving averages widens, highlighting the structural weakness. Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle, and the daily RSI plunging to an extreme oversold level of 22 underscores the possibility of a short-term relief rally. The next downside markers are 22,000, followed by 21,800, which could act as potential support zones. On the upside, 22,400 serves as immediate resistance, a confluence of the 9-EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, making it a key hurdle for any attempted rebound,” said Mehra.

According to Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in, Nifty 50 has started to walk the lower Bollinger band, indicating weakness in the index.

“Nifty 50 was sold off from its day’s high during the day, suggesting any bounce can be used to sell the index. The index has crucial support at the 22,000 level, a break of which can take the index towards 21,200 levels. The ADX DI- line is sloping upside with the ADX average line rising, indicating the momentum is still on the downside. The index is trading well below the lower Keltner channel, indicating weakness,” said Dwarakanath.

Options writer’s data for the monthly expiry showed increased writing of calls at the 22,000 and above levels however, a strong put writing is observed at 22,000 levels, indicating weakness in the index with a support at the 22,000 level, he added.

Meanwhile, VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, expects the Nifty 50 to find support between 22,080 and 21,950, whereas resistance can be found near 22,170 and 22,250.

Bank Nifty Prediction

Bank Nifty index dropped 230.40 points, or 0.48%, to close at 48,114.30 on Monday, forming a triple-bottom pattern, which is generally considered a bullish formation.

“However, for this pattern to remain valid, the 47,500 support level must hold. Additionally, a sustained upside confirmation would require for the Bank Nifty index to reclaim the 9-EMA, currently positioned at 48,900. The daily RSI remains at 35, reflecting weak momentum. While a short-term relief rally may occur, it is likely to be temporary. At present, capitalizing on small price movements will be crucial,” said Om Mehra.

Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath highlighted that the Bank Nifty index also closed below the lower Bollinger band, indicating weakness in the index.

“Bank Nifty index also has been trading below the lower Keltner channel, also suggesting weakness. The ADX average line is sloping upside with the ADX DI- line, indicating the momentum is on the downside. The index has crucial support at the 47,800 level, a break of which can take the index to 47,000 or below levels,” said Dwarakanath.

Options writer’s data for the monthly expiry showed increased writing of the calls above the 48,000 level and increased writing of puts near the 48,000 level, indicating weakness with support at the 48,000 level in the index, he added.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.