The APEC Climate Centre of South Korea is projecting a normal south-west monsoon for India this year, after it revised its outlook for the equatorial Pacific to ‘inactive’ for the time being. This means the Korean agency has withdrawn its watch for La Niña (that is believed to aid the Indian monsoon), and is instead suggesting ’neutral’ (neither El Nino or La Nina) conditions to evolve here.
Two most notable features emerging from the February outlook (subject to being revised every month) is, one, it does not indicate any sustained rain deficiency during the monsoon (June to September) for any region in India, and two, North-East India can look forward to normal-to-above-normal rainfall in a welcome break from the recent past. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) normally comes out with its first long-range monsoon forecast around mid-April.
Pre-monsoon (March-May)
The APEC Climate Centre’s outlook for the pre-monsoon (March to May) and the first three monsoon months (June to August) is as follows:
March to May: Strong possibility of above normal temperatures, except over the South Peninsula. Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema may stay less hot than the rest – West, North-West, East and North-East, and Central India.
Precipitation (rainfall) trends for pre-monsoon indicates above-normal rain for the region spanning the Arabian Sea to the South China Sea (including Indian subcontinent). Rainfall is likely to be above normal along the West Coast (Kerala and Coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa) as well as parts of interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
June to August: First three months of monsoon (June, July and August) shows a tendency for above-normal precipitation for most parts of India, except the South Peninsula and the Gujarat-West Rajasthan belt, where it would be around normal. No deficient rain is indicated for any region in the country. Outlook for September, the last month of the monsoon, is not available for now.
Monthly outlook
March: Mostly normal rainfall except over extreme South Peninsula (parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where it would be slightly above normal) and parts of North-West India (Gujarat-Rajasthan-Punjab belt, where it would be slightly below normal).
As for temperatures, parts of Central India may be the hottest (Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh). It would be less hot over Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Odisha, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. It will be comparably cooler over Delhi-Haryana-Chandigarh and the South Peninsula.
April, May outlook
April: Mostly normal rainfall except over Kerala, where it may be slightly above normal; and Gujarat, Rajasthan and Delhi-Chandigarh-Haryana, where it would be slightly below normal. Temperatures would be moderate (lower than March) for most of the country, except Konkan-Mumbai, where it would be above-normal; and South Peninsula, where it would comparably cooler.
May: Rainfall for the month before the normal start of the monsoon is expected to be above-normal for most of the country, except a corridor along the West Coast (Goa, Costal Karnataka and Kerala), where it would be normal. Parts of West Bengal and North-East India, too, may cool down thanks to pre-monsoon rainfall marked by high winds, seasonal thunderstorms and lightning.
As for rainfall for the rest of the country, it would be normal across most regions, except Kerala and the adjoining South-East Arabian Sea, where it would be slightly above normal, thanks to pre-monsoon thunderstorms, just as in the case of North-East India.
Monsoon months
June: Temperatures would be moderate to lower across the country as the monsoon arrives, except Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, which may have to wait for the rains until the end of the month. The monsoon is expected to have a normal start along the Kerala coast.
Rains may ramp up along the Konkan-Mumbai coast, interior Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh during the latter part of June, as the Bay of Bengal joins the Arabian Sea in pumping in monsoon moisture. The rest of the country, too, is expected to turn normal in terms of rainfall received. Crucially, no deficit rainfall is projected for June, unlike the case in the past few years.
Normal June, July
July: Normally the rainiest month, July is projected to rain down a normal quantum (and likely no excess) across the country, cooled down by monsoon winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, except parts of the Gangetic plains, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, where it would be slightly above normal.
August: The second rainiest of the four monsoon months, too, is expected to bring normal rain, except in Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, and parts of Vidarbha and coastal Andhra Pradesh, where it would be slightly above normal.