The writer is director of the Turkey programme at the Middle East Institute and author of ‘Erdoğan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria’
In a historic call last week, Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed Kurdish militant leader, asked fighters with his Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) to lay down their arms. The announcement is part of recently launched talks between Öcalan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s nationalist coalition. Ending a 40-year war that left 40,000 people dead is something to be celebrated. But consider why the PKK emerged in the first place and optimism quickly fades.
Öcalan founded the PKK in 1978 as a response to the Turkish government’s suppression of Kurdish rights and identity. Subsequent decades saw an improvement in cultural rights but with Erdoğan’s authoritarian turn in the 2000s, freedoms were eroded. Turkish jails are full of Kurdish politicians and activists. One can still be detained for singing and dancing to Kurdish songs.
Why, then, does Öcalan think it is time for the PKK to lay down its arms? The answer is Turkey’s military operations at home and in the PKK’s stronghold in northern Iraq have significantly weakened the militant group.
The PKK’s long-running support among Turkey’s Kurds has been waning since 2015. Large-scale devastation and civilian killings have undermined sympathy for the group.
Regional dynamics have added to its troubles and constrained its room for manoeuvre. Israel’s post-October 7 military operations have debilitated Iran and its proxies, including Iran-affiliated groups in Iraq allied with the PKK. Iran’s waning regional influence has also undermined the PKK’s Syrian offshoot. The Turkey-friendly post-Assad government in Damascus, coupled with a potential US withdrawal from Syria, leave it in a precarious position.
Erdoğan has his own reasons for holding talks with Öcalan. Under Turkey’s constitution, he cannot run again in 2028. With the support of the pro-Kurdish party, he would have the votes to change that.
The PKK’s disarmament will help Erdoğan on the foreign policy front as well. He wants to bolster trade, expand energy and defence co-operation, and improve connectivity with Iraq. The PKK’s presence in Iraqi Kurdistan and relationship with Iran complicated those plans. Now Erdoğan sees the chance to cultivate closer ties with Baghdad and Kurdistan.
Erdoğan has big plans in Syria too. He has long wanted the PKK’s Syrian offshoot disbanded, the governance of the region it controls dismantled and US co-operation ended. He sees an opportunity in post-Assad Syria to achieve all of these goals. The situation is complicated, however. The Syrian Kurdish militia is in talks with the interim government in Damascus, but the two sides are at an impasse over its integration into the Syrian armed forces. If an agreement is not reached, Turkey has threatened to launch a military operation against the militia, which could derail Öcalan’s efforts.
Erdoğan stands to be the winner whatever the outcome. If things go smoothly and the PKK dissolves itself, Turkey’s strongman will claim credit for ending a 40-year insurgency and enter the next election against a weakened opposition. The pro-Kurdish party’s co-operation with the ruling coalition has divided Erdoğan’s opponents. If things do not go to plan, he will look strong by further clamping down on opposition and going after the Syrian Kurdish militia once again.
I have long supported the Kurdish political fight for democracy and rights and argued that only through the peaceful resolution of the Kurdish problem could Turkey become truly democratic. Öcalan’s call marks a historic juncture. But as long as Turkey remains autocratic, the dispute over the issue will derail efforts to establish a democratic future, for both Turks and Kurds.