Prabhudas Lilladher pegs Nifty 50 target below 26,000, lists 23 top picks across segments; do you own any?

Brokerage firm Prabhudas Lilladher has trimmed its base case target for Nifty 50 to 25,689 against its earlier target of 27,172, anticipating extended volatility in the near term. The brokerage firm’s bull case and bear case targets for the index are 27,041 and 24,337, respectively.

The benchmark index has plunged over 14 percent from its all-time high of 26,277.35, reached on September 27 last year. Since October, it has been falling every month due to foreign capital outflow, weak earnings, the rupee’s slide to record lows, and geopolitical headwinds, primarily due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

“We cut our base case Nifty target to 25,689 (27,172 earlier) on Nifty EPS cut by 0.8 per cent, 2 per cent and 2.6 per cent for FY25, FY26 and FY27, respectively. We recommend selective buying for long-term gains,” Prabhudas Lilladher said.

key themes to play for long-term gains

Prabhudas Lilladher believes India’s capex stories, such as capital goods, infra, ports, EMS, new energy, data centres, railways and defence, are the key themes to play.

Apart from these, healthcare, tourism (aviation, hotels, accessories), discretionary consumption (e-com, jewellery, food services, retail), and financialisation (capital market entities, digital public infra) are also some of the key themes to play for long-term gains.

High conviction picks of Prabhudas Lilladher

The brokerage firm removed Ambuja Cement, Siemens, Lemon Tree, Praj, Jindal Stainless, Cyient and Cyient DLM from conviction picks. However, it remains positive for Siemens, Lemon Tree, and Praj in the long term.

“We are adding ABB, Astral Poly, Chalet Hotels, Cipla, Ingersoll Rand, Keynes Tech, and Maruti Suzuki in conviction picks,” said the brokerage firm.

Top large-cap picks

Prabhudas Lilladher’s top large-cap picks are ABB India, Bharat Electronics, Bharti Airtel, Britannia Industries, Cipla, ICICI Bank, Infosys, InterGlobe Aviation, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, Reliance Industries, and Titan Company.

Top mid and small-cap picks

Aster DM Healthcare, Astral, Chalet Hotels, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals, DOMS Industries, Ingersoll-Rand (India), Kaynes Technology India, Max Healthcare Institute and Polycab India are the top mid and small-cap picks of the brokerage firm.

Model portfolio of Prabhudas Lilladher

The brokerage firm is turning overweight on consumer on expected uptick in demand following tax cuts, decline in food inflation and cut in repo rate.

“We increase weight in banks and healthcare. We are adding Cipla and Astral Poly in the Model portfolio,” Prabhudas Lilladher said.

“We are increasing weight on Maruti Suzuki, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ABB, Bharat Electronics, InterGlobe Aviation, ITC and Bharti Airtel. We are reducing weights in L&T, Titan, HUL, Reliance Industries, HCL Tech, HDFC AMC, and there are small adjustments in others,” Prabhudas Lilladher said.

Indian stock market outlook: Challenges persist

Prabhudas Lilladher underscored that the Nifty 50 has declined amid tepid consumer demand, weak currency and geopolitical headwinds after the resumption of office by President Trump in the US.

The brokerage firm expects a gradual recovery in domestic demand as it believes food inflation, which declined from 10.9 per cent on October 24 to 6 per cent currently, has peaked.

Prabhudas Lilladher believes a 25 bps cut in repo rate by RBI and OMO (open market operation) will ease liquidity in the next three to six months.

Moreover, a ₹1,00,000 crore income tax cut for consuming class in India, an increase in religious tourism, and a 17 per cent higher government capital expenditure (capex) allocation (including PSU and allocation to states) will also contribute to recovery, said Prabhudas Lilladher.

US tariff policies: No significant impact on India

Prabhudas Lilladher believes India may not experience any meaningful negatives of US policies as “soft crude oil prices, geopolitical stabilities, if Russia-Ukraine war stops, and increased transfer of technology to India will neutralise costs of Trump tariffs.”

“We expect markets to remain volatile in the near term but stabilise towards the end of 4Q25. We expect the impact of various government initiatives and monsoons (normal monsoons as per APEC Climate Centre South Korea) to start getting reflected in improved consumer demand in 2Q26,” said Prabhudas Lilladher.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.