Residential sales and launches have seen a distinct downward trend in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half, and preliminary data indicates that the trend is continuing in 2025 as well.
Data also shows a softening of launch prices in some major real estate markets such as Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, and the National Capital Region, indicating that real estate developers could be selling at lower prices.
Home sales across top nine cities in the country fell 13 per cent in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half, data provided to businessline by PropEquity showed. Launches fell 27 per cent in the second half compared to the first half, the data showed.
A similar trend was exhibited by data from Anarock, according to which housing sales across top 7 cities fell 16.5 per cent in H2 of 2024 from H1 while supply fell 19 per cent.
The cities in the survey were Mumbai Metropolitan Region, National Capital Region, Bengaluru, Pune, Hyderabad, Chennai, Kolkata, Navi Mumbai, and Thane. The NCR was the only region that showed a growth in both sales and launches.
Usually the second half of the year is when home sales pick up as most of the festivals are bunched around that time and people consider festivals such as Navratri and Diwali as auspicious occasions to invest in a house. Builders also time their launches for this period.
While the data shows that during Navratri and Diwali weeks home registrations spiked, the overall trend indicates subdued demand.
Slowing sales, launches
Despite the data, market experts are reluctant to term this as a slowdown in the sector or indicative of a trend.
“The decline in residential sales and launches in the second half of 2024 (July–December) compared to the first half (January–June) should be viewed in the context of seasonal market patterns rather than as a definitive sign of a slowdown,” said Ram Naik, Co-Founder and CEO of The Guardian Real Estate Advisory.
“Past activity shows that real estate trends can be volatile with changes in external festivity based demand, legislative changes, or change in interest rates,” he added.
Real estate experts pointed to the healthy launch pipeline for the current year as an indicator of the expected demand for housing.
“Data trends indicate that there is a healthy pipeline of new supply by listed developers in 2025,” said Anuj Puri, Chairman Anarock Group. Of the total announced residential development of 253.16 million square feet over the next few years, just 23 per cent was launched in the first half of FY 2025, he said.
The residential segment is anticipated to exhibit positive growth in 2025 “driven by a combination of factors including consistent end-user demand, strong economic fundamentals and favourable home loan interest rates,” Puri said. One major driver of sales would be the luxury segment due to the rise in the number of high networth individuals, he explained.
Hyderabad, Kolkata, and Mumbai showed the most fall in sales while Pune, Chennai and Navi Mumbai accounted for the most fall in new launches.
