Rupert Lowe threatens Reform UK schism

Good morning. Reform is experiencing its first major split after Rupert Lowe, MP for Great Yarmouth, gave an interview to the Mail in which he heavily criticised Nigel Farage. In it, he questioned whether Farage had it in him to “deliver the goods” or be prime minister. Some thoughts on that below.

Old habits die hard

Farage’s parties have a tendency to split. The seven members of the Ukip group elected to the Welsh Assembly in 2016 ended up in three different places: the Brexit party, Abolish and as independents. The two members elected to the London Assembly in 2004 had, by 2008, between them cycled through three different party groupings: Veritas, Veritas-Ukip and One London.

Of the first three Ukip members elected to the European parliament in 1999, one had left the grouping by 2002. And so, eventually, did Farage himself, who judged that the party had been irretrievably lost to its fringes once Tommy Robinson was allowed to join.

So, in many ways, Rupert Lowe giving remarkably unhelpful interviews to newspapers is just what we should expect to happen. It’s the same old set of criticisms that Farage has attracted from within his parties: he doesn’t have what it takes to expand appeal, he is too dictatorial, the party needs to be more open to its right flank.

Frankly, I don’t think Rupert Lowe is going to be any more successful than Gerard Batten, Patrick O’Flynn, Douglas Carswell, Robert Kilroy-Silk or any of the other politicians who thought they knew how to better steer the ship. (That it was a struggle to remember some of those names tells its own story.)

Politically, this comes at a dangerous time for Farage, as his views on Ukraine and Donald Trump are at odds with even his own voters, as Luke Tryl explains here.

One thing that makes the UK unusual is there isn’t really a pro-Vladimir Putin caucus in the country, even though there are plenty of politicians offering it.

That may well change, though. Should the government decide it wants to pay for defence through spending cuts, tax rises or a combination of the two, Farage’s unpopular views about Ukraine might come into fashion. It’s unlikely. But it’s rather less unlikely than Lowe’s grumbling about his leader amounting to much in the long run.

Now try this

I had a wonderful time at Shepherd’s Bush Empire last night seeing Franz Ferdinand, who really are terrific live. I like their new album a great deal.

As it happens, I am actually named after Shepherd’s Bush. In the 1930s, my great-grandfather, fearing Adolf Hitler would cross the Channel, decided the family had to shed the name “Shimanski” and go for a more English-sounding name. Given that the family store in Shepherd’s Bush had the imaginative name “Bush Stores”, a lot of his customers already thought he was called “Mr Bush” anyway. And so the family was rebranded.

However you spend it, have a wonderful weekend!

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