SAIL share price falls over 3% ahead of Q3 results today. Here’s what to expect

Steel Authority of India (SAIL) share price traded over 3% lower on Tuesday ahead of the Q3 results today. SAIL shares fell as much as 3.09% to ₹101.85 apiece on the BSE.

SAIL is a Maharatna PSU company and one of the largest steel producers in India. The board of directors of the state-run company will meet today to approve the financial results for the third quarter of FY25.

“…it is hereby informed that the meeting of the Board of Directors of Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) will be held on 11 February, 2025 at New Delhi to, inter-alia, consider, approve and take on record the Unaudited Standalone and Consolidated Financial Results of the Company for the Quarter and Nine Months ended 31 December, 2024,” SAIL said in a regulatory filing.

Analysts expect SAIL to report revenue growth in Q3FY25 led by an increase in sales volumes. However, certain analysts also expect the company to slip into losses during the quarter ended December 2025. Here’s what to expect:

SAIL Q3 results 2025 Preview

Axis Securities expects SAIL to report revenue growth of 5.4% to ₹24,604 crore in Q3FY25 from ₹23,349 crore, year-on-year (YoY). The company’s sales volume in the December quarter is expected to grow 21.8% YoY to 4.6 MT from 3.8 MT. Net profit is expected to drop sharply by 78.3% to ₹92 crore from ₹423 crore, YoY.

“We expect revenue to increase YoY and stay flat QoQ led by higher sales volume, partially offset by lower HRC prices. We expect Adj. EBITDA (excluding railway provisions) to decrease YoY due to lower realisations partly offset by higher sales volume and lower coking coal costs. EBITDA to rise QoQ led by a recovery in sales volumes, partly offset by lower realisations. EBITDA per tonne to decline YoY led by lower sales realisation. On a QoQ basis, it is expected to increase led by higher sales volume,” Axis Securities said.

JM Financial estimates realizations to decline by ₹1,200 per ton QoQ and volumes to grow by 3% to 4.2 million tons, while EBITDA per tonne is expected at ₹4,486, up 45% QoQ.

Nuvama Institutional Equities expects SAIL to slip into a net loss during the fiscal third quarter ended December 2024. It expects adjusted EBITDA per tonne of ₹4,197, up ₹1,106 QoQ (Q2 included prior-period rail price revision benefit) and decrease in coking coal cost by $20 per tonne QoQ. The net realisation per tonne is expected to decrease by ₹900 QoQ while volume is likely to increase by 4% QoQ to 4.26 MT.

Motilal Oswal believes volumes to drive growth for SAIL, while weak ASP to drag margins. Softened coal cost is expected to offset the impact of weak NSR. Moreover, management guidance on debt reduction roadmap and on domestic and international steel prices and capex will be critical.

Kotak Institutional Equities estimates SAIL’s volumes to increase 12% YoY and 4% QoQ in the quarter on a weak base. It estimates steel realizations to decrease by 2.2% QoQ and by 10.3% YoY on the back of lower HRC prices during the quarter. EBITDA per tonne is estimated to increase 49% QoQ to ₹4,609 per tonne on the back of lower coking coal costs, partially offset by muted realizations during the quarter.

At 10:20 AM, SAIL shares were trading 2.95% lower at ₹102.00 apiece on the BSE. 

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