Domestic markets are expected to see a positive start after a long weekend. According to analysts, the fresh week will see further consolidation amid buying at lower levels and positive macroeconomic indicators. Gift Nifty at 22,555 signals a gap-up opening of 100 points for Nifty.
Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said: looking ahead, all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy review scheduled for March 19. While recent inflation data suggests a favourable trend, the possibility of an interest rate cut remains uncertain due to ongoing trade tensions; however, their commentary would be crucial. “Back home, market participants will closely monitor FII activity, as selling pressure from foreign investors has intensified once again after a brief slowdown. Any improvement on this front could provide some relief to the markets. Caution is warranted in broader markets, as heightened volatility could lead to further underperformance. Investors are advised to avoid aggressive positioning in mid and small-cap stocks,” he added.
Meanwhile, global markets are sending positive signals. Equities across the Asia-Pacific region are strongly higher following stellar gains in US stocks on Friday.
According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, persistent uncertainties surrounding global trade and the fear of a US recession may continue to influence the domestic market’s momentum. However, the moderation in valuations following recent corrections, along with supportive factors such as falling crude oil prices, an easing Dollar Index, and expectations of a rebound in domestic earnings in the coming quarters, may limit the volatility and is expected to contribute to stability amid prevailing trade uncertainties, he said. “Looking ahead, next week’s release of China’s retail sales growth data and industrial production data will provide a clearer understanding of the Chinese economic growth outlook. Investors will also be closely monitoring US retail sales and production numbers,” he added.
Trading in the derivative market also indicates stability for benchmark indices.
According to Choice Broking, open interest (OI), data reveals the highest concentration of call OI at 22,500 and 22,600, signalling strong resistance, while put OI is highest at 22,300, marking a key support level. “If Nifty sustains above 22,680, it could trigger a fresh rally, while failure to hold above 22,150 may invite further selling pressure,” he said, adding that traders should maintain a cautious approach with strict risk management amid ongoing global uncertainties.
