The number of young people who are not in employment, education or training in the UK has risen sharply over the past year, according to official data that suggests men in particular are struggling to enter a slowing labour market.
Some 907,000 people aged between 16 and 24 were classed as “NEET” at the end of 2024, 13.4 per cent of all those in that age group, figures published by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday showed. It marks an increase of 110,000, or 1.3 percentage points, compared with a year earlier.
The precise figures are highly uncertain, because they are based on the statistics agency’s labour force survey, which has suffered from low response rates and has been especially volatile for younger age groups.
But they come against a backdrop of very weak hiring, with tax records showing employment has flatlined over the past year and surveys reporting that many employers are looking to cut headcounts ahead of tax and minimum wage increases in April.
The youth rates of the minimum wage are poised to rise more sharply than the main adult rate for people over 21, in line with a government target to move to a single rate for all those over 18 in time.
The imminent increase in employers’ national insurance contributions is also set to hit hardest in sectors such as hospitality and retail, which often employ large numbers of young people on part-time hours and relatively low pay.
“With falling vacancies and a sluggish labour market, estimates appear to show that young people are being hit hardest,” said Ben Harrison, director of Lancaster University’s Work Foundation, noting that the data, if correct, showed the level of NEETs was at its highest for 10 years.
The ONS figures showed a higher rate of young men outside work or training, with 14.4 per cent of 16- to 24-year-olds classed as NEET compared with 12.3 per cent of young women. However, the year-on-year rise was similar for both.
People at the start of their careers tend to suffer most in a downturn, as employers generally cut back hiring before they lay off existing staff.
Stephen Evans, chief executive of the Learning and Work Institute, a research organisation, said the “worrying rise may signal further trouble ahead in the absence of economic growth”, and that it underlined the importance of putting in place a state guarantee of a job or training place.
A “youth guarantee” that is meant to offer all 18- to 21-year-olds access to a job, training place or apprenticeship forms part of government plans to step up job support for the unemployed and economically inactive. It will also widen access to mental health services, career advice and work experience.
But Harrison noted that almost half of those counted as NEET in the latest data appeared to be aged between 22 and 24, suggesting many of those who needed help would miss out on ministers’ plans.