The APEC Climate Centre in South Korea, in its latest (March 17) outlook, has maintained normal to above-normal rainfall prospects for India during April-June and July-September (pre-monsoon and southwest monsoon). However, it also hinted at regional disparities on a month-to-month basis, which is normal.
April-May-June
April-May-June witnesses a transition from the hot pre-monsoon season to the wet southwest monsoon and is likely to witness normal to above-normal rainfall across the country, except in the extreme north Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, parts of Punjab, and Uttarakhand—where it would be slightly below normal.
Rainfall excess is indicated for South Gujarat, Mumbai, Konkan & Goa, and Coastal Karnataka, as well as adjoining Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, and parts of North Interior Karnataka and Telangana. To the east, rainfall excess is also indicated for parts of East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and the Northeastern States.
July-Aug-September
July-August-September, which covers the entire monsoon period, shows slight deficiencies in parts of Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka, the western parts (ghats) of Tamil Nadu, and southern Kerala. Elsewhere, a deficiency is indicated for parts of coastal and northern Gujarat and the adjoining extreme southwest Rajasthan.
Updated APEC Climate Centre projections for August for India suggests normal to above-normal rainfall for most of country except West India and South Peninsula (save coastal Tamil Nadu).
| Photo Credit: APEC Climate Centre
April: Monthly projections hint at a sharper negative variation (below-normal rainfall) for the entire Northwest India, East India, East-Central India, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, and adjoining North Coastal Tamil Nadu. Normal to above-normal rainfall is indicated for Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, most of Tamil Nadu, and the entire Karnataka and Kerala.
May: Rainfall shortfall is indicated in May for the entire Rajasthan, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir-Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and parts of Jharkhand, Bihar, and Chhattisgarh. The rest of the country may see above-normal rainfall, with excess rain likely over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Goa.
June: Kerala, where the monsoon officially sets in June, and neighbouring Tamil Nadu may likely end up in a deficit. Fringes of Jammu & Kashmir-Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh may witness a slight shortfall. But a strong monsoon is indicated for the rest of the West Coast, Central India, and East India.
July: A month that usually receives the maximum rainfall, July, may see most of Tamil Nadu and parts of south Kerala receive less-than-normal rainfall, along with the entire Gujarat, adjoining southwest Rajasthan, and parts of west Madhya Pradesh. The rest of the country may receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
August: Projected exceptions with below-normal rainfall during August, which usually records the second-highest rainfall, include the entire South Peninsula (except coastal Tamil Nadu), Goa, the entire Gujarat, and adjoining southwest Rajasthan. The rest of the country is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
September: The scenario is partly reversed in September, the last monsoon month, which may see normal rainfall for most of the country except parts of Karnataka, which may experience a slight deficit, as well as Jammu & Kashmir-Ladakh. Rainfall excess may occur in the entire Gujarat and Central India.
