Nifty50 on February
Indian benchmark index Nifty50 closed 178 points lower at 23,381.60 on Monday, following heightened tensions triggered by US President Donald Trump’s announcement to impose import duties on all steel and aluminum imports, along with additional reciprocal tariffs.
In response to global market developments, the index opened the session on a subdued note at 23,543.80 and continued to decline throughout the day, testing support near the 21-day moving average (DMA). It extended its losses for the fourth consecutive session and formed another bearish candle in a row. All major sectoral indices closed in the red, with market breadth significantly skewed toward decliners, recording an advance-decline ratio of approximately 1:5.
From a technical perspective, the index encountered significant resistance around its 50-day moving average (DMA) and a downward-sloping trendline connecting the highs of September 2024 and December 2024. Today, the index found support at its 21-DMA, near the 21,300. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is currently declining at approximately 48. Additionally, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has shown a positive crossover but remains below its central line, signaling a cautious market outlook.
According to O’Neil’s methodology of market direction, on 4 February, Nifty staged a follow-through day as it advanced more than 1.5% on higher volume than the 3 February session. Hence, we have upgraded the market status to a ‘confirmed uptrend’. We may downgrade the status to an ‘uptrend under pressure’ if the distribution day count increases and Nifty breaches its key support level.
Looking ahead, 23,300–23,200 may serve as an immediate support zone. However, a sustained move below these levels could signal a more negative outlook. On the upside, the 23,700–23,800 range is likely to act as a key resistance zone.
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How Nifty Bank performed
On Monday, Bank Nifty opened lower remained in negative territory throughout the day. It formed a bearish candle with a lower-high and lower-low price structure, testing its 21-EMA on the daily chart. The index hit an intraday low of 49,703 before recovering 278 points. It opened at 50,052.50, fluctuated between 50,155.65 and 49,703.10, and closed at 49,981.00, marking a 0.35% loss for the day.
The 14-day, relative strength index (RSI), has slightly bent downward and is currently placed around 52 on the daily chart. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) also shows a positive crossover on the daily chart and is trending near its central line.
According to O’Neil’s methodology of market direction, we upgraded the market status to a ‘confirmed uptrend’ on Tuesday last week as Bank Nifty crossed its recent rally high, which was placed at 49,650.60. On the flip side, we may downgrade the status to an Uptrend Under Pressure if the distribution day count increases and the index breaches its key support level.
At the current juncture, the index is facing resistance in the range of 50,600–50,800. Once this hurdle is surpassed, the index might shoot up beyond 51,000 and may move toward 52,000 in the coming days. However, on the downside, the immediate support is placed around 49,600, followed by 49,000.
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