With the US retreating, nations rush to protect themselves. Europe, India and Asia must brace for a future without American security
The message to Canada from the White House couldn’t have been blunter. This week, the US president issued his loudest and most chilling threat yet on Truth Social, telling Canadians “the only thing that makes sense” is for them “to become our cherished 51st state… The artificial line of separation drawn many years ago will finally disappear, and we will have the safest and most beautiful nation anywhere in the world.”
Since returning to power, Donald Trump has made increasingly hostile threats and imposed a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods in a bid to bring the country to its economic knees and gain control of its vast natural resources. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is convinced Trump is serious about obliterating his 200-year-old country.
Trump is enraged that Canada is standing up to him with counter-tariffs, boycotts of US goods and travel, and booing the US anthem at sports events. A move by Ontario Premier Doug Ford (the equivalent of an Indian chief minister) to slap a 25 per cent tariff on electricity sales to the US sent Trump into a fury, prompting him to double the tariff on Canadian steel and aluminium imports to 50 per cent, sending stock markets into a nosedive. Cooler heads have since prevailed, and Ford is set to meet US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick in Washington on Thursday.
But the no-holds-barred US economic war to break Canada’s resistance and Trump’s loose-cannon behaviour have driven home an unsettling reality: the world’s only superpower can no longer be trusted. Trump’s stunning alignment with Russia, hostility towards Ukraine, and authoritarian-friendly policies have made countries realise they must rely on their own resources and strengthen their military to protect themselves.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has already issued a stark warning, declaring every adult Polish male will have to undergo “large-scale military training.” He’s also planning to double Poland’s armed forces to 500,000 and hinted at developing nuclear weapons, despite being a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
It’s almost certain other nations are considering similar moves. If Poland pursues nuclear weapons, can Germany be far behind? Initially, Germany may rely on France’s nuclear umbrella, but in the long run, it may feel compelled to build its own nuclear defences.
A similar shift is likely in East Asia. Trump has aggressively questioned why the US should continue protecting Japan, disregarding the historical purpose of their post-war treaties: to prevent Japanese rearmament. But Trump has a habit of ignoring history when it doesn’t fit his narrative.
Japan faces threats from both China and, potentially, North Korea. Given its ongoing disputes with China over the Senkaku Islands and the ever-present hostility from Pyongyang, can Japan afford not to go nuclear — despite its deep-rooted anti-nuclear sentiments as the only nation to have suffered nuclear devastation? Taiwan as well is growing apprehensive about the reliability of Washington’s support against China while South Korea is concerned about the steadfastness of US support against North Korean threats.
Security framework
Trump has bulldozed the entire security framework carefully constructed after World War II to maintain peace in the nuclear age.
The Western world will now have to construct a new security architecture without US support. This new reality was on display when French President Emmanuel Macron hosted the military chiefs of 34 nations this week — noticeably, the US was absent.
It may be uncomfortable to admit, but world leaders might be studying Pakistan’s nuclear strategy and how it has used its arsenal to deter a larger adversary. On multiple occasions — Kargil in 1999, the Parliament attack in 2002, and the Mumbai terrorist attacks in 2008 — Pakistan crossed red lines, yet India refrained from full-scale mobilisation, wary of Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities.
Where does this leave India? Despite the display of bonhomie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump, we face the damaging threat of “reciprocal” tariffs on April 2 from the US, our largest export market. Meanwhile, we levy some of the world’s highest duties — far above American rates. And if the US prioritises its relationship with China, can we be certain our alliances will hold?
What’s now undeniable is that it’s every nation for itself. The global protector that the world has relied on for 80 years is no longer willing to play its role. The isolationist forces in the 1930s that appeased aggressors and ultimately led to the Second World War are now in control. In this new era, each nation must build its own defences — because the old order has crumbled.
