The recurring question in liberal circles during Donald Trump’s first term as US president was whether to take him seriously or literally. Seven weeks into his second term, it has so far been a close-run thing between “He did what?!” and “Doesn’t he realise that will be disastrous?”, as a series of abrupt departures from decades-long norms has broken brains on both sides of the Atlantic.
In the realm of geopolitics, it was unthinkable that the US would suddenly suspend military support from a longtime ally fighting off an invasion — until it happened. In economics, surely Trump and his team wouldn’t take action that could tank US stocks, let alone cause GDP to contract? Think again.
But the series of shock decisions — not just the rhetoric — from Trump, vice-president JD Vance and Elon Musk are less brain-bendingly inexplicable once you realise this: their version of America is operating on an entirely different set of values from the rest of the western world.
Every five to 10 years, the World Values Survey asks hundreds of questions of people in dozens of countries, in an attempt to quantify differences in the culture, norms and beliefs of people in different societies.
Usually, analysis is done at national level, but by drilling down to different political parties in the latest raw data, I find that on everything from attitudes towards international co-operation, to appetite for an autocratic leadership style, through to trust in institutions and inward- vs outward-looking mindset, Trump’s America is a stark outlier from western Europe and the rest of the Anglosphere. In many cases, the Maga mindset is much closer to that of Vladimir Putin’s Russia or Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey.
The stark divide remains even when we compare US Republicans with their conservative counterparts elsewhere in the west. On the key policy issues defining the 2020s, Trump-era Republicans are a different breed from the British, French or German right.
This wasn’t always the case. The US Republicans of 20 years ago were no keener on autocracy than the average Canadian or western European — and just as supportive of international co-operation. Picture George W Bush and Tony Blair “shoulder to shoulder”.
But the breadth and depth of the divide today means dialogue between Trump and Sir Keir Starmer or Emmanuel Macron is akin to the first meeting between two previously isolated civilisations. Goals, strategies and tactics that are a given across the rest of the west seem anathema to Trump and Vance. This disconnect explains why the UK’s prime minister could have what was by all accounts a successful meeting with the US president, only to be blindsided on a fundamental issue hours later.
While the Maga movement had already begun this value divergence in 2016, the bulk of Trump’s most norm-breaking inclinations were kept in check by those around him in his first term. But those moderating influences have since been replaced by cheerleaders and powerful lieutenants.
In this sense, the US government now embodies the values behind Trump’s and his supporters for the first time, and is rapidly showing them to be misaligned even with most western conservatives. The hectoring by Trump and Vance of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last week was criticised even by prominent rightwing voices across the Atlantic, including Robert Jenrick, Britain’s outspoken former Conservative immigration minister.
Acknowledging the new reality can be clarifying. Western leaders from Canada to Europe stand more chance of navigating both Trump and the broader geopolitical and economic future if they know that he and Vance are using a completely different calculus.
A government seemingly driven by zero-sum ideology and a commitment to reducing international co-operation is one whose threats of a trade war you should probably take seriously despite possible economic self-harm. Likewise, a leadership team that believes geopolitics is a game of cards played by strong men and great powers is one whose support and co- operation other countries should quickly build independence from.
The next four years and beyond will be a bumpy ride come what may, but it will be more navigable after accepting that the world has fundamentally changed. For decades, the US was the champion of western values. The America of Trump, Vance and Musk has left them behind.
john.burn-murdoch@ft.com, @jburnmurdoch
Data sources and methodology
All statistics were calculated using the World Values Survey and European Values Study. Values scales were constructed following the approaches set out by Inglehart and Welzel (2005) and Welzel (2013), with the addition of the items measuring appetite for autocracy-style political systems, and confidence in supranational and international organisations.
Values scores were calculated separately for the political left and right in each western country including the US, with that distinction based on political party classifications where available, and survey respondents’ self-identification as left- or right-leaning in all other cases.