The writer is the author of ‘Chip War’
“I’m a little bit nervous,” admitted CC Wei, the CEO of Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC, taking the podium at the White House this week as he announced the largest foreign investment in American history. The entire chip industry has been nervous while watching President Donald Trump’s tariff escalation. Trump has threatened retaliation against Taiwan for having “stolen” US business. Yet TSMC is doubling down on its US manufacturing footprint with a new $100bn commitment.
What exactly is TSMC planning to build? In addition to the chip plants — called fabs — already on their Arizona campus, TSMC will add three more. The company will also build two advanced packaging plants and an R&D facility. The timeline, capacity, and technology capabilities of these plants is not clear, but TSMC says they will produce AI chips. Even if the new plants have a similar volume to TSMC’s current facility, the US operations would still be a small share of the company’s overall production, though a higher share of its advanced manufacturing.
This investment cements America’s position as a significant player in advanced chipmaking, behind only Taiwan and South Korea. TSMC’s customers — mostly big US chip designers like Nvidia, Apple, and AMD — will welcome the further geographic diversification of its manufacturing operations. Yet they will also ask about the cost. TSMC has learnt efficiencies during its time in the US, but its manufacturing there is still more expensive than in Taiwan. Both TSMC and its customers may now avoid tariffs, but they will find themselves with higher manufacturing costs instead.
Still this announcement poses tough questions for Samsung and Intel, the two other primary manufacturers of advanced processors, who have pitched themselves as reliable suppliers with less exposure to China-related risk. As TSMC’s US footprint grows, this argument gets harder to make.
Has this investment addressed America’s fears of being cut off from Taiwan’s chipmaking capabilities? Standing alongside Wei, Trump noted pointedly that TSMC’s new plants would be built in a “very safe place”. Yet even $100bn only goes so far in the capital intensive semiconductor supply chain. Products like smartphones and consumer electronics will probably remain entrenched in Taiwan and China.
For AI chips, however, the new investment may represent a more significant shift. TSMC has reportedly been discussing manufacturing Nvidia’s advanced Blackwell AI chips in Arizona. If the company’s new facilities include its advanced packaging technology, then AI accelerators could be fully produced in the US. Other Taiwanese firms such as Foxconn are also planning new US plants to assemble these AI chips into servers, though some key inputs would still be sourced from Japan or Korea. After these new investments, the US still won’t have an end-to-end AI supply chain, but it will be less dependent on production in Taiwan.
What do TSMC and Taiwan get from the announcement? Relief from tariff threats, they hope. Trump warned Taiwan it could face levies of “25 per cent or 30 per cent or 50 per cent” in the future. As the industry’s dominant supplier, TSMC could no doubt pass some tariff-induced price increases on to customers. But if these new plants prevent tariffs in the first place, the investment may prove to be money well spent.
A second concern for TSMC is, as Trump put it, “Taiwan pretty much has a monopoly” over high-end processors. From AT&T to IBM, Microsoft to Alphabet, tangles with antitrust authorities have historically been common for tech companies with 90 per cent market share, as TSMC has in advanced chipmaking. This is another rationale for solidifying ties with an administration that has talked tough on tech antitrust.
A final explanation is less about TSMC and more about Taiwan. Some in the country worry that TSMC’s international expansion undermines the “silicon shield” they believe has helped to deter Chinese escalation. However, even with these new plants, the majority of TSMC’s production will remain onshore. Taiwan’s leaders hope that by investing in the US economy they can keep Trump invested in their security. So TSMC is betting its future on being even more deeply bound to the US.