Ukraine’s uncertain future on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion

Hello and welcome to the working week.

The conflict in Ukraine has been an ever-present item on news agendas for the past 36 months, but not so much a matter for a newsletter such as this on upcoming diary items because war is seldom publicly scheduled. This week is different because there are events we know that will happen to mark the third anniversary on Monday of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

A virtual G7 meeting will be held to find a resolution, though finding unity within this group will be a major challenge. US President Donald Trump, who blames Ukraine for starting the war, describing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections”, has talked of a “minerals for aid” deal with resource-rich Ukraine and suggests that Russia should be invited back into the G7. There also remains a question mark over whether Zelenskyy will be allowed to take part in this important meeting — though he will address the nation on Monday.

French President Emmanuel Macron will be able to express his opinions to Trump’s face as he visits the White House on Monday, the first European leader to arrive in Washington since the inauguration. Macron told the Financial Times that Trump’s return was an “electroshock” for Europe, which should galvanise countries across the continent to “muscle up” on defence and the economy. He said on social media last week that he aimed to convince Trump of the folly of negotiating with Russia alone. Doing so, he warned, would be seen as caving to President Vladimir Putin’s demand and would make the US president look weak in the eyes of China and Iran.

Then it is the turn of the British. Sir Keir Starmer touches down in Washington on Wednesday evening ahead of his meeting with Trump a day later. It’s a high-stakes conversation given the UK prime minister’s aspiration to be a bridge between the US and Europe — for an insight into his thinking read FT political editor George Parker’s interview with him. The issues on the table will be broad — tariffs, trade and technology collaboration as well as Ukraine and defence. Trump has been pretty complimentary of Starmer thus far, but the PM will need to offer something to a president known for his love of the deal. One potential advantage Starmer has is his own security of tenure, with a parliamentary majority strong enough to ensure that he will still be around as PM when Trump must step down.

The flow of corporate quarterly and full-year earnings continues with a smorgasbord of industries. Among them insurance is a theme, with Aviva, Axa, Hiscox and Swiss Re all reporting, as is travel — IAG and Qantas Airways — and tech — notably Nvidia and Salesforce on Wednesday.

The economic data run decelerates a bit from last week, but there will be quarterly GDP estimates from Germany, India and the US. For the UK, the focus will be on the energy regulator’s latest price cap decision on Tuesday. Cornwall Insight, a respected forecaster, is predicting a 5 per cent increase being announced for domestic energy prices from April, adding £85 a year to household bills. More details of this and other items below.

One more thing . . . 

Regular readers will know that my passion for cinema and the delight of escaping into a good film run in direct contrast to the ugly politics of movie award ceremonies. But I have had to reappraise my opinion after being moved to tears by the acceptance speech of Warwick Davis at last Sunday’s Bafta ceremony.

This Sunday, it’s the turn of the Oscars and the FT has everything you need to know about the runners and riders. If it were up to me, Bob Dylan’s biopic A Complete Unknown would be given an armful of golden statuettes, doing a great deal to restore my faith in that awards ceremony. I fear, however, that this is not so much a case of blowin’ in the wind as whistling in it.

What are your plans for the week ahead? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• The Bank of England begins a two-day conference at its London conference centre on the theme “The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet” to promote policy-relevant research in this field by bringing together researchers from academia, central banks and international institutions

• Masato Kanda becomes Asian Development Bank president, succeeding Masatsugu Asakawa who stepped down yesterday. Kanda will complete the unexpired term of Asakawa, which ends on November 23 next year

• EU: January harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data. Also, Q4 trade with Russia

• Germany: February ifo business climate index

• Japan: Emperor’s birthday observed. Financial markets closed

• Results: Bank of Ireland FY, Domino’s Pizza Q4, Tristel HY, Zoom Q4

Tuesday

• Apple holds its annual meeting of shareholders, including a vote on shareholders’ proposal to abolish its Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) programme. The board has recommended that shareholders vote against the proposal

• OECD Q4 world trade statistics

• Germany: Q4 GDP estimate

• Japan: January services producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• South Korea: interest rate decision

• US: Conference Board February consumer confidence figures

• Results: Axon Enterprise Q4, Caesars Entertainment Q4, City of London Investment Group HY, Croda FY, First Solar Q4, Home Depot Q4, Intuit Q2, Keurig Dr Pepper Q4, McBride HY, Smith & Nephew Q4, Unite Group FY

Wednesday

• Bank of England monetary policy committee member Swati Dhingra gives the Dow Lecture, “Trade fragmentation and monetary policy”, at the offices of the think-tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London

• FT Live’s two-day Business of Sport Summit kicks off. Register here

• EU: figures on Q4 trade with Ukraine

• France: INSEE consumer confidence survey

• Germany: Q4 earnings data, plus GfK consumer climate survey

• India: Mahashivratri regional holiday. Financial markets closed

• Results: Adecco Q4, Agilent Technologies Q1, Ambev Q4, Anheuser-Busch InBev Q4, Alcon Q4, Aston Martin Lagonda FY, ConvaTec FY, CRH Q4, Danone FY, Deutsche Telekom Q4, eBay Q4, E. ON FY, Hammerson FY, Heathrow FY, Lowe’s Q4, Morgan Sindall FY, National Bank of Canada Q1, Nvidia Q4, Petrobras FY, Rathbones FY, Salesforce Q4, Stellantis FY, TJX Q4, Urban Outfitters Q4, Wolters Kluwer FY

Thursday

• EU: European Central Bank publishes minutes of last rate-setting meeting

• France: January producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• US: revised Q4 GDP figures

• Results: Aviva FY, Axa FY, Autodesk Q4, Beiersdorf FY, CVS HY, Dell Technologies Q4, Drax FY, Embraer Q4, Eni FY, Ferrovial FY, Genus HY, Haleon FY, Hiscox FY, Howden Joinery FY, Iberdrola FY, Jupiter Fund Management FY, LSEG FY, Macfarlane FY, Man Group FY, Metro Bank FY, Ocado FY, Qantas Airways HY, Rolls-Royce FY, Royal Bank of Canada Q1, Serco FY, Shaftesbury Capital FY, St James’s Place FY, Swiss Re FY, Taylor Wimpey FY, Telefónica FY, Toronto-Dominion Bank Q1, Veolia Environnement FY, Warner Bros Discovery Q4, WPP FY

Friday

• Bank of England deputy governor for markets and banking, Dave Ramsden gives the keynote speech at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University on monetary policy in a world of geopolitical fragmentation

• The new Apple iPhone 16e goes on sale following last week’s launch event.

• Canada: Q4 GDP estimate

• France: February CPI inflation rate data

• Germany: February consumer price index (CPI) and HICP inflation rate data. Plus, January labour market figures

• India: Q3 GDP estimate

• Japan: January industrial production figures

• UK: Nationwide House Price Index

• Results: AES Q4, Allianz FY, Clariant Q4, IAG FY, Pearson FY, Rightmove FY

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Belgium: Council of EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels

• China: 62nd Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) begins in the eastern city of Hangzhou, the capital of Zhejiang province

• UK: London Fashion Week concludes. Also, Nigel Farage addresses the Cornish conference for Reform UK, a party recently itself reformed. He addresses a similar regional rally in Hull on Thursday

• Ukraine: third anniversary of Russia launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war that started in February 2014. A virtual meeting of G7 heads of state will be held to discuss potential resolutions

• US: President Trump hosts his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron at the White House

Tuesday

• Italy: the 2024 UN Biodiversity Conference resumes sessions for the 16th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in Rome. Agenda includes securing $200bn annually for biodiversity by 2030

• Thailand: the 2025 Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development opens at the UN Conference Center in Bangkok, running until Friday

• UK: Ofgem announces update to the energy price cap. Also, the National Farmers Union annual conference is held in London, and is expected to feature complaints about how the government’s inheritance tax changes will affect small family farms

Wednesday

• Anguilla: parliamentary elections

• Japan: Nikkei-sponsored Japan-India-Africa Business Forum, run online and in person at the Iino Conference Center in Tokyo

• Switzerland: World Trade Organization holds a three-day trade policy review of Ukraine

• UK: British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer arrives in Washington ahead of his first meeting with Trump tomorrow

Thursday

Friday

• Ramadan begins this evening, running until March 30

• Brazil: Rio Carnival 2025 starts with an opening ceremony in which the Carnival King is crowned by the mayor and receives the city’s keys

• Taiwan: Peace Memorial Day, a national holiday

Saturday

• First day of the meteorological spring

• Nasa Europa Clipper mission is due to make a fly-by of Mars en route to Jupiter’s moon Europa, where it will become the first mission to conduct a detailed scientific investigation of the moon

• South Korea: Independence Movement Day, a national holiday commemorating protests against Japanese colonial rule in the last century

• UK: The Brits music awards are staged at the O2 arena in Greenwich, London. Also, St David’s Day commemorates the feast day of the patron saint of Wales, who died in 589AD

Sunday

• Tajikistan: parliamentary and local elections

• UK: annual rail fare price increase

• US: the 97th Academy Awards ceremony, aka The Oscars, is held in Hollywood, Los Angeles