US and Russia to meet for Ukraine peace talks that Kyiv will not recognise

Good morning and welcome back to FirstFT Asia. Today we’ll cover:

• China’s potential delay on Tesla’s self-driving cars

• An unspoken question: who will succeed Xi Jinping?

• Indonesia’s shrinking middle class

But first, the big story today: senior US and Russian officials are set to meet in Riyadh for talks that the Kremlin says could restore full bilateral relations and end the Ukraine war, but which Kyiv says it will not recognise.

As US secretary of state Marco Rubio arrived in the Saudi capital ahead of meeting the Russian delegation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv “will not take part” in the talks and “did not know anything about it”.

Speaking from the United Arab Emirates, Zelenskyy added: “Ukraine regards any negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine as ones that have no result, and we cannot recognise . . . any agreements about us without us.” 

Russia is framing the meeting as the start of its return from the cold after years of western attempts to isolate it in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

The hastily convened talks have alarmed Ukraine and its European allies, which clashed over putting boots on the ground during emergency talks yesterday. Here’s what else you need to know ahead of today’s meeting.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Singapore Budget: Prime minister and finance minister Lawrence Wong will deliver the 2025 Budget at 3:30pm local time.

• Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision: Central bankers are expected to make their first rate cut in more than four years, according to a poll of economists. (Reuters)

• UN Security Council meeting: Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi will host a high-level open debate on multilateralism and global governance

Five more top stories

1. Tesla could be hit with a delay in receiving Chinese approval for its autonomous driving tech, as Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company risks getting dragged into the escalating US-China trade war. Despite an earlier indication Tesla would get the green light before mid-year, regulators seem to have backtracked, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

2. Xi Jinping addressed some of China’s top tech entrepreneurs yesterday in Beijing, including Alibaba’s Jack Ma and Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, as the government looks to reinvigorate private business and drive stronger economic growth. Ma’s attendance signals that the entrepreneur had been rehabilitated after becoming the most prominent victim of a government crackdown on the tech sector in 2020.

3. Japan’s GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 2.8 per cent in the October to December 2024 period, significantly exceeding consensus analyst estimates and marking the third straight quarter of expansion. The yen strengthened 0.3 per cent to ¥151.8 per US dollar following the data’s release. Most economists now expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at least once this year. Read more on the health of the Japanese economy.

• More business news from Japan: Bain Capital has abandoned its $4bn pursuit of Japan’s Fuji Soft, conceding to rival KKR in one of the most bruising battles in global private equity.

4. Israeli forces will temporarily remain at five locations inside south Lebanon ahead of today’s deadline to withdraw from the country. Israeli officials said this was part of last year’s US-brokered deal that ended the war between Israel and Hizbollah. It was unclear whether the purported consent was provided solely by Washington or whether France, the UN and the Lebanese government had also approved. Read the full story.

5. Argentina’s President Javier Milei has been hit with impeachment calls and lawsuits following his promotion of a memecoin that soared in value before collapsing. Milei promoted $LIBRA on X on Friday night, which had begun trading minutes earlier. Its value quickly soared above $4 before falling below 50 cents. Buyers accused the coin’s creators of a possible “rug pull” scheme.

The Big Read

After more than a decade of political purges and centralisation of power, China’s most powerful leader since Mao faces no direct challenge to his authority. As he enters the midpoint of his third five-year term in power, China’s unspoken question is becoming more urgent: who will succeed Xi Jinping?

We’re also reading . . .

Graphic of the day

The world’s skies are becoming crowded, as rockets, drones, and “flying taxis” in the near future begin to use airspace, causing headaches for airlines. Aviation experts believe the way airspace is managed will need to change.

Take a break from the news . . . 

Although Chinese makers might be struggling to establish a foothold in the US, they are increasing their presence in Europe and the UK. If you’re considering going electric, don’t miss HTSI’s guide to Chinese EVs.