The author is former chief of MI6 and UK ambassador to the UN
A new Syria is struggling to emerge from the shadows of the Assad dictatorship. Violence this month in the coastal cities is a worrying sign that the country could splinter into sectarianism. Elements of the former regime started it, killing dozens of the new government’s poorly organised security forces. But the reinforcements brought in to deal with those responsible then went on a killing spree of civilians from the Alawite community that formed the backbone of the brutal Assad regime. Some estimates say up to 1,000 Alawites were killed.
Until this violence, there had been a tense calm after the collapse of the old regime in December. The welcome calls for tolerance from Ahmed al-Sharaa, the new self-appointed president, had been largely respected. But hatred of those responsible for the torture and mass killings under the old regime was still bubbling beneath the surface.
The sectarian violence is a wake-up call for Sharaa, whose promise to build an inclusive government has so far proved largely empty. Last month’s National Dialogue conference in Damascus involved other opposition groups, but many participants came away concluding that Sharaa was focused on power for himself and the narrow group he led in opposition.
Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militia evolved out of the Syria branch of al-Qaeda, and he and his armed followers are still rooted in a brand of Salafist Islamism that is unpopular even within the majority Sunni community. Sharaa has appointed his HTS lieutenants to senior positions in the new army, having unwisely disbanded the old Syrian national army and the police service — repeating the painful mistakes the Americans made in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime.
Not all is going wrong. The ceasefire in Turkey announced by Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), has helped to ease tensions between Damascus and the Syrian Kurds. The latter control Syria’s resource-rich north-east, and their organisation, the Syrian Democratic Forces, is politically aligned with the PKK.
On Monday, SDF leader Mazloum Abdi signed an agreement with Sharaa that, if implemented, would put the Kurdish-led institutions of the north-east, including their militia, under national control in return for Sharaa recognising the Kurdish community’s constitutional rights. The implications are not spelt out but the Kurds will interpret that as acceptance of some degree of regional autonomy, as the Kurds in Iraq enjoy. The agreement is Sharaa’s first serious move to recognise the aspirations of Syria’s minority communities.
While Turkey is trying to help Sharaa, Israel is making life difficult for him. During the Syrian civil war, the Israelis calculated that the Assad regime, despite its ties to Iran and its role in channelling arms to Hizbollah in Lebanon, was preferable to the uncertainty of a ragtag Islamist opposition taking power in Damascus. Since Assad’s fall, Israeli forces have moved further towards Damascus and are reaching out to armed groups in the south of Syria, including the Druze. Some Arab leaders may share Israel’s preference for a fragmented Syria over one led by Islamists.
On top of all this, the Syrian people are getting frustrated. Electricity supply is limited to a few hours a day. An influx of cheap Turkish goods is undercutting local manufacturers. Government employees have either lost their jobs or are not receiving salaries.
Sharaa needs to move quickly to show he is serious about building an inclusive Syria. Trying to re-establish autocratic power in such a diverse country is a recipe for violent resistance. There are too many armed militias, too much scope for meddling by outside powers, and also a determination among Syrians not to go back to rule by one community over all the others.
The agreement with the Kurds is a vital first step, but action with other minorities and regions must follow. Militias will not accept disbandment unless they know their communities’ interests have legal and constitutional protection. Even the Alawites, some of whom also suffered under the Assad family regime, need to be accorded a respectable place in the new system.
Sharaa has earned a right to have first go at leading Syria to a better future. Security is essential but that means bringing all the militias into a common approach, not forcibly disarming them. Thursday’s constitutional declaration sets out some helpful principles. But the promised representative assembly will have to be genuinely open to debate and avoid rigid adoption of sharia law.
Sharaa also needs to attract back Syrian exiles who have the skills and international connections to lead a technocratic government. Such a government could secure the removal of remaining western sanctions and get the economy working again. That means sharing power, not holding it tight to himself.
At present, Syria is on a path to fragmentation that would be a lost opportunity and a gift to terrorist groups such as Isis and al-Qaeda. Sharaa doesn’t have long to show that he can build the tolerant, inclusive Syria he has promised.
