What the German election result means for Europe

Good morning. Germany’s election has delivered a slim but navigable path for centre-right leader Friedrich Merz to become chancellor at the head of a two-party grand coalition — despite a big win for the far right.

Separately, last night EU leaders were summoned to an emergency summit on March 6 to discuss Ukraine and European defence.

As Laura explains below, there’s very little chance Germany will have a new chancellor to sit at that summit table. And I preview French President Emmanuel Macron’s meeting with Donald Trump later today.

Renewal

Germany’s centre-right leader Friedrich Merz has won federal elections, and is set to steer Europe’s largest economy towards a more stable government as he seeks to form a coalition with the centre-left Social Democratic party (SPD), writes Laura Dubois.

Context: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s called snap elections after the three-way coalition between his SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP collapsed last autumn after years of infighting.

Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) together with its Bavarian sister party won 28.5 per cent, while Scholz’s SPD crashed to 16.4 per cent, according to preliminary results. It was the worst result for the SPD since 1887, and the second-worst for the CDU since 1949.

The AfD, meanwhile, doubled its share of votes to a record 20.8 per cent.

Merz quickly declared victory and called for swift coalition talks. “The world out there doesn’t wait for us, and it also doesn’t wait for lengthy coalition negotiations,” Merz said, adding that he would show the world that “Germany is being reliably governed again”.

Speaking on television after polls closed, he said he hoped to form a government by Easter. His party would have a majority together with the SPD. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who took responsibility for the SPD’s abysmal results, has indicated he would not be part of a government led by Merz.

European officials who have long criticised Germany’s lack of leadership in Brussels likely breathed a sigh of relief at the result. Many in Brussels hope that Merz will take a more assertive role in shaping urgent issues, such as increasing defence spending and supporting Ukraine as peace talks between the US and Russia are under way.

Merz has pledged to reform Germany’s strict debt rules to allow for more defence spending, but due to the high vote share of the AfD, it is unclear whether he would be able to negotiate a majority strong enough to make the needed constitutional changes.

Merz also said that a key aim for him was to “achieve independence from the US”, as the current administration “is largely indifferent” about Europe’s fate.

“Merz has shown that he has ideas for Europe and appears willing to put in the work in Brussels, Paris and elsewhere to make them happen” said one EU diplomat. “[It’s] about time, as Europe needs Germany to be active and engaged right now.”

Chart du jour: Hawkish

The Eurozone risks “sleepwalking” into making too many interest rate cuts and needs to stand ready to stop lowering borrowing costs soon, the head of Belgium’s central bank has said.

Monsieur Europe

Emmanuel Macron meets with Donald Trump today seeking to convince the US president to pause in his rush to strike a Ukraine peace deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and spare a thought for Europe.

Context: US-Russia negotiations began last week with no European or Ukrainian participation. Trump has accused Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being “a dictator”. Zelenskyy yesterday offered to step down if that brought Ukraine peace and Nato membership.

Many European capitals were aghast at the US-Russia talks in Riyadh, and demanded a seat at the negotiation table given Russia’s threat to the entire continent. In moves that many saw as him asking for that seat, Macron responded by convening two meetings of European leaders and held telephone calls with Trump and Zelenskyy.

Macron has said he will tell Trump not to appear “weak” to Putin: “It’s not you, it’s not your trademark, it’s not in your interest.”

He travels with no mandate from European capitals, but many diplomats begrudgingly accept that Macron is one of very few options with both the stature and the experience to potentially speak for the continent.

Macron’s lobbying attempt follows a meeting between Trump and Polish President Andrzej Duda this weekend, and one with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday. Starmer and Macron had a co-ordination call last night.

On Saturday Italian premier Giorgia Meloni, whom some see as Europe’s best hope of a Trump-whisperer, told the influential Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington that Europe and the US “must continue working together today for a just and lasting peace [in Ukraine]”.

What to watch today

1. G7 leaders hold call on anniversary of Ukraine’s full-scale invasion.

2. European commissioners meet in Kyiv.

3. EU foreign affairs ministers meet.

Now read these

• ‘Step up’: The future of the post-1945 security order hangs in the balance, write eight foreign ministers: Now is the time for Europe to really step up on Ukraine.

• China policy: ‘Europe must take its own decisions’ towards Beijing and not simply follow the US, says Spain’s foreign minister José Manuel Albares.

• Maga onslaught: Europe should be flattered by attacks from Trump’s henchmen as they want to defang the EU, writes Martin Sandbu.